Projecting the New Year's Six: Week 11

The weekly rankings from the CFP committee are an interesting beast.  Because they only take into account the body of work up to that point in the season, there are often teams near each other that will be facing each other before season's end.  Turnover is expected at the top.

Anyway, I have come up with two scenarios for New Year's Six Bowl projections based on the current rankings.

Scenario #1 - If we just take the rankings at face value, and don't account for future match-ups, and assume the highest ranked team from a conference will be champion.

Sugar Bowl:  #1 Georgia vs. #4 Clemson
Rose Bowl:  #2 Alabama vs. #3 Notre Dame

The champs of the Big 12 (#5 Oklahoma), Pac-12 (#9 Washington), and Big Ten (#8 Wisconsin) champs would all be displaced from their spots, and would have to find spots in the at-large bowls.  The Orange Bowl would be taking the next available ACC team to replace Clemson.  With the Group of 5 team (#18 UCF) taking a Peach Bowl spot, there are only 2 at-large spots left, which would go to the two highest ranked teams left (#6 TCU and #11 USC).

Orange Bowl:  #7 Miami vs. #10 Auburn
Peach Bowl:  #6 TCU vs. #18 UCF
Fiesta Bowl:  #8 Wisconsin vs. #9 Washington
Cotton Bowl:  #5 Oklahoma vs. #11 USC

Obviously, the last three are mostly interchangeable.  I am intrigue by the fact that the traditional Rose Bowl match-up could get recreated in another bowl, and I think the Fiesta Bowl is the proper location for that.  Oklahoma and TCU are interchangeable, as either one would be close to the Cotton Bowl, as well as being a nice highly ranked balance to #18 UCF.


Scenario #2 - Take future match-ups into account and do some in-season projections.

First, it's highly likely that #1 Georgia and #2 Alabama will be facing off in the SEC championship game.  If the rest of the top 10 can keep their records close, it's likely that the loser will fall out of the top 4.  Meanwhile, #5 Oklahoma and #6 TCU play each other this weekend, so one of them is definitely dropping before season's end.  I will be assuming that the higher ranked team will win, however, in these scenarios, those teams are easily interchangeable.

Sugar Bowl:  #1 Georgia vs. #5 Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:  #3 Notre Dame vs. #4 Clemson

The Sugar Bowl would be the exact matchup that it should be (SEC champ vs. Big 12 champ), so no team would be displaced, but the Rose Bowl would still displace both the Pac-12 and Big Ten champs.  I would assume that Alabama would stay ranked high enough to be the top of the list for the Orange Bowl pool.  Obviously, TCU would fall in the rankings, but based on their record, they could easily be in the #10-12 range, around teams like Michigan State.

Orange Bowl:  #7 Miami vs. #2 Alabama
Peach Bowl:  #10 Auburn vs. #18 UCF
Fiesta Bowl:  #8 Wisconsin vs. #9 Washington
Cotton Bowl:  #6 TCU or #12 Michigan State vs. #11 USC

Again, we recreate the Rose Bowl match-up in the Fiesta Bowl.  Auburn is not a bad geographical fit for the Peach or Cotton Bowl, but the other available teams are all better fits for the Cotton Bowl.

Either way, it's still looking like the only way to lock into a New Year's Six Bowl is to be in the top 11.