Thursday, November 16, 2017

ACC rooting guide

As we approach the final two weeks of the regular season, and the conference title games are set, we also have to root for bowl positioning.

This rooting guide is set up for a VT fan's perspective.


There are four main goals:

1.)  VT win out, and go to the best bowl possible.
2.)  Maximize ACC bowl revenue, so have as many ACC teams bowl eligible as possible.
3.)  Have those bowls be the highest quality bowls as possible, with the biggest pay outs.
4.)  FSU not go bowling.

For goal #1, we want to see VT either go to a bowl in Orlando (Citrus or Camping World) or a Tier 1 bowl.  Since VT is currently unranked, they are too far back to get a NY6 at-large spot, and a whole lot of chaos would have to occur for them to back their way into the Orange Bowl (where they would likely end up facing someone that they are not ready to play).

For goal #2, we have to take a look at Notre Dame.  I'm not completely sure how the revenue sharing works if they get into the ACC pool of bowls, but at this point with where they are ranked, it's probably best that they go to a New Year's Six bowl, and stay out of the ACC pool.  This also ties into goal #3 a bit.

For goal #3, that means we want a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so the ACC gets into the Citrus Bowl.   (Obviously, the Citrus Bowl payout would be higher than whatever tier 2 or conditional bowl gets dropped.)

Goal #4 is more of a selfish goal.  VT fans are tired of seeing the asterisk next to the claim that they have the longest active bowl streak*.

*As currently recognized by the NCAA since FSU got in trouble one year and had to vacate a win.

Let's assume that Clemson and Miami will be among the NY6 somehow.

Current ACC standings:
VT 7-3
NC State 7-3
Wake Forest 6-4
Louisville 6-4
UVA 6-4
BC 5-5
GT 5-4
Pitt 4-6
Duke 4-6
Syracuse 4-6
FSU 3-6

UNC is already bowl ineligible.  We just need FSU to lose one of their last three games, and it doesn't matter which one.

Rooting interests in week 12:
-Pitt at VT -- VT, duh
-Syracuse at Louisville -- Syracuse (gets them closer to eligible and pushes Louisville down the list)
-NC State at Wake -- Wake, to keep NC State behind us on the list.
-GT at Duke -- Duke (gets them closer)
-BC vs. UConn -- BC (goes bowling)
-UVA at Miami -- let's just say Miami, because it keeps UVA down on the list.

Standings after week 12:
VT 8-3
NC State 7-4
Wake Forest 7-4
Louisville 6-5
UVA 6-5
BC 6-5
GT 5-5
Duke 5-6
Syracuse 5-6
Pitt 4-7

Obviously, in Pitt's case, goal #1 clashes with goal #2, so they would drop out of bowl eligibility.

Then, in week 13, we have these rooting interests:
-VT at UVA -- VT
-Georgia at GT -- GT (goes bowling)
-BC at Syracuse -- Syracuse (goes bowling)
-Duke at WF -- Duke
-Louisville at Kentucky -- Louisville (not that is really matters that this point, but screw the SEC)
-UNC at NC State -- UNC (knocks NC State down the list)

Standings after week 13:
VT 9-3
NC State 7-5
Wake Forest 7-5
Louisville 7-5
UVA 6-6
BC 6-6
GT 6-5
Duke 6-6
Syracuse 6-6

And on top of those games, we probably want to see Clemson, Miami, and Notre Dame win out.

In this scenario, there are 9 ACC teams to go to the bowls in Orlando, tier 1, and tier 2.  VT would be at the top of the list and cannot be jumped, since everyone else is at least two wins behind them.

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