The Upsets
As we all figured, there were some big upsets during October. Iowa State over Oklahoma; Syracuse over Clemson. No longer will that Apple Cup be a Top 10 showdown of 10-win teams. And forget ranked - Florida State could very well miss a bowl game altogether!
The 0/1 Loss Teams
Even so, we enter the first weekend of November with 4 undefeated Power 5 teams (plus American team UCF), along with 9 teams with 1 loss. As was the case a year ago, some of those losses were to each other. And yet, so many matchup among these teams remain!
Playoff Contenders
At this point, all 13 of those 0-1 loss P5 teams remain CFP contenders. If true chaos happens, I suppose UCF could get close as well - though that may require a little too much chaos. And if we get there, perhaps 2-loss Auburn or Iowa State (if either teams wins out) enter the fringe of the discussion.
There is a lot of talk about Alabama and Georgia both making it, along with Notre Dame - essentially knocking three P5 conferences out of the playoff altogether. While many are still hesitant to put 2 from one conference in, it'll be hard to keep a potential 12-1 Georgia out in favor of a 11-1 Notre Dame who lost to Georgia in South Bend.
Personally, I think it'll be a no-brainer; whether both Georgia and Notre Dame make it (lack of 1-loss teams), both miss it, or the wins/losses in November make it a slam-dunk conclusion for exactly one of them.
I'm glad to see Georgia ahead of Alabama. While I give the Tide a lot of credit for dominating the teams on their schedule, I think that is a HUGE stretch to call a team #1 strictly because of eye test. That being said, the stretch of LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn will give Alabama plenty of opportunity to lay a bona fide claim for the top spot.
The PAC-12 is on thin ice, while the Big 12 at least has a trio of one-loss contenders. Oklahoma has the premier non-conference win out of that trio, but will the Sooners really run the table? That back-to-back stretch of Bedlam and TCU will be highly telling.
With so many games still to go among the top 15 (or so) teams, I think there continue to be such a wide array of possibilities for who can be in.
Conference Races
For those wanting conference semi-finals, we pretty much got 'em here in the ACC! Miami is in position to clinch the Coastal with a win + UVA loss, while NC State would be just one win away with a win (with UNC still to come). Don't count out VT and Clemson, both road betting favorites, who could keep the conference race interesting until the end.
For Iowa State, things are getting really interesting. If they beat Oklahoma State, then the Cyclones can afford to miss any one of their other three games and secure at least the #2 seed. If not, then they still have a great shot if they win the other November games. Matt Campbell for Coach of the Year?
For as dominant as Georgia and Alabama have been, it's interesting that they've still got a game or so to go before either can clinch their SEC divisions. If Kentucky loses to Ole Miss, Georgia can clinch the East this weekend. Though Ole Miss has gotten shakier by the week. And even as an undefeated, Alabama may need to go all the way to the Iron Bowl to clinch!
New Year's Six Contenders
The I-4 showdown lost a little luster after USF's surprise loss to Houston, but the lack of other great options from among the Group of Five keep USF and the American as the greatest likelihood of making it. And with 1-loss Memphis ranked by the committee, it could be a foregone conclusion on championship weekend.
As for the Orange Bowl slot, all three of the options are firmly on the table. Will it be a Big Ten team like Penn State or Wisconsin? Or an SEC team like the Alabama-Georgia loser? Or could it be Notre Dame, who just misses the CFP cut? A lot of money for all of these and the ACC, along with the non-NY6 (but still very good) Citrus Bowl, all hinge on how this slot turns out.
And what about those at-larges? Right now, the Big Ten is looking like the most likely possibility for three NY6 teams with Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State. But don't count out the ACC, if things go just right (10-1 Miami loses to VT, plus 11-win VT and Clemson meeting in Charlotte as 11-1 teams).
With San Diego State's collapse in October, I think any realistic talk of two G5 teams making it have collapsed with the Aztecs. Such a shame, since it looked like there were a couple of good contenders.
November Look-Ahead
Oh, boy! The first weekend along has seven ranked matchups that will shake up the CFP and New Years Six races big time! Some teams are just heating up, others are showing signs of strain. We're not done with the upsets - or the drama!
Some key games that will define November - and the season - look to be among the following:
- The seven ranked matchups this weekend (most particularly the two in the ACC)
- Georgia-Auburn and Washington-Stanford on 11/11
- Notre Dame at Miami, also on 11/11
- The follow-up to Bedlam on the 11th: Oklahoma-TCU and Oklahoma State-Iowa State
- Black Friday and Rivalry Weekend - Alabama-Auburn, Notre Dame-Stanford, and a less-shiny-but-still-intriguing Apple Cup
Happy November, everybody! We made it!
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