Thursday, November 23, 2017

ACC rooting guide: week 13

Who are Hokies rooting for during the final week to maximize the bowl jackpot?

There are four main goals:

1.)  VT goes to the best bowl possible.
2.)  Maximize ACC bowl revenue, so have as many ACC teams bowl eligible as possible.
3.)  Have those bowls be the highest quality bowls as possible, with the biggest pay outs.
4.)  FSU not go bowling.

I went in depth on those goals last week, but the short version is that we want VT to be at the top of the list of available ACC bowl teams, and have every other team be at least two games back.  We also want as many ACC teams in bowls above the Tier 1 level as possible, so we want Clemson and Miami both in the NY6 (by whatever means necessary), and then have the Big Ten be the Orange Bowl opponent, so the ACC gets the Citrus Bowl.  We also want Notre Dame to stay in the NY6 bowls, so they don't take one of our selections away.

Finally, we want FSU to lose and not go to a bowl so that VT can have the longest active streak as recognized by the NCAA and the rest of reality.

Let's assume that Clemson and Miami will be among the NY6 somehow.

After last week, Pitt and Syracuse dropped out of bowl eligibility, although they might get in with a win and mercy from their APR.

Standings after week 12:
VT 8-3
NC State 7-4
Wake Forest 7-4
Louisville 7-4
UVA 6-5
BC 6-5
GT 5-5
Duke 5-6
FSU 4-6

Then, in week 13, we have these rooting interests:
-VT at UVA -- VT
-Georgia at GT -- GT (goes bowling)
-BC at Syracuse -- Syracuse (keeps BC down the list)
-Duke at WF -- Duke (goes bowling, and keeps WF down the list)
-Louisville at Kentucky -- Kentucky (pushes Louisville down the list)
-UNC at NC State -- UNC (knocks NC State down the list)
-Florida at FSU -- Florida (knocks FSU out of eligibility)

Standings after week 13:
VT 9-3
NC State 7-5
Wake Forest 7-5
Louisville 7-5
UVA 6-6
BC 6-6
GT 6-5
Duke 6-6

And on top of those games, we probably want to see Clemson, Miami, and Notre Dame win out.

In this scenario, we have 8 ACC teams to fill the bowls in Orlando and tiers 1 and 2.  VT would be at the top of the list and cannot be jumped, since everyone else is at least two wins behind them.  These teams would fill all of the tier 1 spots, as well as the Camping World Bowl, and at least two of the tier 2 spots.  The last ACC spot would either be in the Citrus Bowl or the last tier 2 bowl.

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