Sunday, November 12, 2017

Week 11 wrap up

We already have half of the Power 5 championship berths clinched, with a few more set up in winner-take-all games.  But chaos rules in the Playoff hunt.

Bowl ineligible teams with an asterisk are sitting at 7 losses, and might be able to make a bowl depending on availability and APR rankings.

ACC
Coastal Champions - Miami (6-0)
Miami has won the division based on best record.

Out of contention:
VT (3-3), UNCheat (1-6), Duke (1-5), Pitt (2-4), GT (4-3), UVA (3-3)

Atlantic Champions - Clemson (7-1)
Clemson has won the division based on best record, or the head-to-head tiebreaker over NC State.

Out of contention:
NC State (5-1), Florida State (3-4), Louisville (3-4), WF (3-3), BC (3-4), Syracuse (3-4)

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, NC State, VT, Miami, UVA, Louisville, WF
One win away:  BC
One loss away from no bowl:  FSU, Pitt, Duke, Syracuse
Not bowl eligible:  UNCheat

SEC
East Champions - Georgia (6-1)
Georgia won the division based on best record.

Out of contention:
Tennessee (0-5), Missouri (1-4), Vanderbilt (0-5), Florida (3-5), South Carolina (5-3), Kentucky (3-3)

West
Alabama (7-0) or Auburn (6-1) can clinch the division by beating the other in the Iron Bowl on November 25.  The winner will have the best record and a tiebreaker over the other.

Out of contention:
Ole Miss (got caught cheating), Arkansas (1-5), Texas A&M (3-3), LSU (4-2), Mississippi State (3-3)

Bowl eligible:  Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
One win away:  Missouri
One loss away from no bowl:  Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas
No bowl:  Ole Miss

Alabama retains the Championship of Life, and will likely retain it against Mercer next week.

B1G
East
Controls destiny:
Ohio State (6-1) has tiebreakers over Michigan State and Penn State.  They can clinch with a win and a Michigan loss.

If OSU wins and Michigan loses, then Michigan's best record would be 6-3 and OSU's worst record would be 7-2.  OSU would have any tiebreakers against Michigan State and Penn State if they both win out.

Needs help:
Michigan State (5-2) needs Ohio State to lose out.  They have tiebreakers over Michigan and Penn State.
Penn State (5-2) needs a Michigan State loss and Ohio State to lose out. They have a tiebreaker over Michigan.
Michigan (5-2) needs a Michigan State loss and a Penn State loss.

Michigan State, Penn State, and Michigan can all be eliminated with a loss and an OSU win.

Out of contention:
Rutgers (3-4), Indiana (1-6), Maryland (2-5)

West Champion - Wisconsin (7-0)
Wisconsin will win the division either with the best record, or head-to-head tiebreaker over Northwestern.

Out of contention:
Minnesota (1-6), Purdue (2-5), Illinois (0-7), Nebraska (3-4), Iowa (3-4), Northwestern (5-2)

Bowl eligible:  Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa
One win away:  Minnesota
One loss away from no bowl:  Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska, Purdue
No bowl:  Illinois

Pac-12
North
There are three contenders for the Pac-12 North:
Washington State (6-2) with a tiebreaker over Stanford.
Stanford (6-2) with a tiebreaker over Washington.
Washington (5-3) with no tiebreakers over contenders.

In week 12, Washington State has a bye, Stanford plays Cal, and Washington plays a cross-divisional game against Utah.

If Stanford loses to Cal, they are eliminated, and the Apple Cup becomes a winner-take-all match for the Pac-12 North.  If Stanford wins, then Washington will be eliminated.

In week 13, Washington State can clinch with a win over Washington, regardless of the outcome of the week 12 games.  If Washington State loses, then whichever team wasn't eliminated in week 12 will be the division winner.

In summary:
Washington State needs a win.
Stanford needs a win and a WSU loss.
Washington needs a win against WSU and a Stanford loss to Cal.

Out of contention:
Cal (2-5), Oregon State (0-7), Oregon (2-5)

South Champion - USC (7-1)
USC won with best record and has a tiebreaker over Arizona.

Out of contention:
Arizona (5-2), Arizona State (4-3), Utah (2-5), Colorado (2-6), UCLA (3-4)

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Arizona
One win away:  Oregon, Cal, Arizona State, Utah, UCLA
Last game determines eligibility:  Colorado
No bowl:  Oregon State

Big 12
Controls destiny:
Oklahoma (6-1) has tiebreakers over TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Texas, but lost to Iowa State.  They clinch a berth in the championship game with their next win.
TCU (5-2) has tiebreakers over Texas, Oklahoma State, WVU, and Kansas State, but lost to Iowa State and Oklahoma.

TCU has the tiebreakers over the other 5-2 teams that they would go to the Big 12 title game even if all three teams won out.

Needs help:
Oklahoma State (5-2) has tiebreakers over Iowa State, WVU, and Texas, but lost to TCU and Oklahoma.
West Virginia (5-2) has tiebreakers over Iowa State and Kansas State, but lost to TCU and OkSt.
Texas (4-3) has tiebreakers over Iowa State, Kansas State, but lost to TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.
Iowa State (4-3) has tiebreakers over TCU and Oklahoma, but lost to Oklahoma State, Texas, and WVU.

Of the top four teams in conference (Oklahoma, TCU, Oklahoma State, and WVU), only Oklahoma and WVU have yet to play each other.  If TCU, Oklahoma State, and the WVU/Oklahoma winner all win out, then various tiebreakers would be in play for an Oklahoma/TCU rematch in the Big 12 title game.

Texas and Iowa State are huge long shots, and their involvement in the Big 12 title game would involve a lot of tiebreakers, but there are too many scenarios that could get either one of those teams in position.

Out of contention:
Kansas (0-7), Baylor (1-6), Texas Tech (2-5), Kansas State (3-4)

Kansas State looked like they might have had a shot if they won out, and got into tie at 5-4.  However, that tie would have included either 5 or 6 teams (depending on if Iowa State could beat Baylor).  Kansas State would only have beaten one or two of those teams, while TCU has already beaten four of the teams involved in either tie.  Without having to look at any more outcomes, it is clear that Kansas State would not be able to finish in the top two of the conference.

Bowl eligible:  TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, WVU
One game away:  Kansas State, Texas Tech, Texas
No bowl:  Baylor, Kansas

No comments:

Post a Comment