2021 Season: Championship Weekend and CFP/NY6 Look-Ahead

After watching yesterday's rivalry games, my biggest takeaway was one word: WOW!  Not only did some games FINALLY go the other way, but our setup for Championship Weekend is nothing short of spectacular!

First off, huge congratulations to Oklahoma State and Michigan. Both programs have had some good-to-great teams over the past decade. But only a 2014 Cowboys upset and a 2020 Wolverines cancellation have prevented the past 9 years from yielding a collective 0-18 mark.

Another reason for the rejoicing across most of the college football world: variety!  I previously pointed out that of the 28 CFP spots awarded in the first 7 years, a total of 20 went to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma.  This season, the latter three are all eliminated from not only CFP contention - but also conference contention.  And the fourth - the Tide - are in prime position to follow suit in the event of a (n expected) loss to Georgia.

CFP Contenders

For the first time in the CFP era (starting with the 2014 season), a Group of 5 team is in prime position to make it.  And better yet, they might not even be that close! Depending on the outcomes of other games, Cincinnati could quite possibly finish as high as Number 2!  Even a more "average-case" scenario makes it a reasonable shot at #3.

Similar to past seasons, several teams are in contention.  Of course, not all of them truly control their destinies.  I'll try to break down the teams, in descending order of "control" as best as I can tell.

Already There

• Georgia (12-0).  Simply put, the Bulldogs SHOULD beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.   The only excuse at this point is a mental block on Kirby Smart's part. Or perhaps some gamesmanship. Either way, Georgia's dominance over the regular season have secured them a CFP spot, win or lose.

Fully in Control

• Alabama (11-1). Would be SEC Champs, 12-1, with wins over Georgia and Top 10 Ole Miss.
• Michigan (11-1). Would be Big Ten Champs, 12-1, with wins over Top 10 Ohio State, Top 20 Iowa, and maybe-ranked Wisconsin.

Likely In with Win

• Cincinnati (12-0) is the only other undefeated team. A solid road win over 11-1 Notre Dame,  winning-record SMU, ECU and UCF, put the Bearcats in position to contend.  Win the American Championship against 11-1 Houston (only loss in Week 1 to Texas Tech), and the only likely path to non-inclusion would be the combination of Alabama winning, Oklahoma State winning convincingly, and Michigan avoiding the upset against Iowa.

Up for Debate

• Oklahoma State (11-1) has a chance at a 12th win by beating their 2nd Top 10 opponent in as many weeks. Alabama or Cincy losing would all but secure a Top 4 spot, while even Bama and Cincy wins makes a Cowboys-Bearcats debate interesting.
• Notre Dame (11-1), by contrast, has completed their regular season. The Irish are currently ahead of the Cowboys, though that could change with the penultimate rankings. It almost certainly would in the final rankings if Oklahoma State is 12-1. Notre Dame's best CFP path: a loss by Alabama, coupled with a loss by Michigan (to set up a GA/Cincy/Ok St/ND bracket).

Outside Shot

• Baylor (10-2), by the slimmest of margins. The Bears path: dominant win + Bama loss + Michigan loss + Cincy loss (bracket: GA, ND, Bama, Baylor).

After the rankings come out on Tuesday, I'll offer some additional insights and possibilities.

New Year's Six Contenders

It's also interesting to see a number of teams still in contention for a NY6 berth. But this time, I'll go through the non-semifinal bowls (Orange and Cotton are semis) and list the contenders. 

Rose Bowl

• From the PAC-12: Utah (10-3 with a win) or Oregon (11-2), winner will be PAC-12 Champs
• From the Big Ten: Iowa with a win (would be 11-2) or 10-2 Ohio State with a Michigan win over Iowa (to replace CFP-bound Michigan)

Sugar Bowl

• From the SEC: Alabama if not in CFP (would be 11-2), or 10-2 Ole Miss if the SEC gets both Alabama and Georgia into the CFP
• From the Big 12: Baylor and Oklahoma State. The winner can do no worse; the loser is in if the winner is in the CFP.

Fiesta Bowl

• If Houston wins, the 12-1 Cougars are headed here as the highest-ranked G5 Champ.
• If Cincy wins and is somehow left out of the CFP, the Bearcats will likely go here to complete the "cycle" or Peach/Fiesta/Cotton rotation among the G5 teams (2020 Peach, 2022 Cotton).
• If neither of the above happen, then all of the remaining NY6 teams will be sorted between the Fiesta and Peach as the committee sees fit.

Fiesta/Peach

• Wake Forest or Pittsburgh (winner will be 11-2) guaranteed as the ACC Champ
• Notre Dame (11-1), if not in the Top 4
• Other contenders: 10-2 Ohio State, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Big 12 runner-up (likely in that order, with the last-listed being the most likely to be "bumped" in the event of an Iowa or Houston win).

More to come, once the new rankings come out on Tuesday.

Oh, and to close out a bowl-related and rivalry weekend post.  HOW ABOUT THEM HOKIES!!!!