ACC Wheel of Destiny - Coastal Chaos

We're down to the last two and a half weeks of the season, there are at most 7 games that can determine who goes to Charlotte to represent the ACC Coastal.

Let's breakdown everyone's chances.

Pitt (5-1)
Games remaining:  uva, Syracuse

The quickest way for Pitt to clinch the division is beating uva in week 12 if Miami loses in week 11 or 12.  If Miami wins both of those games, then Pitt can clinch in week 13 with a win over Syracuse OR a Miami loss to Duke.

At the very minimum, Pitt still needs to win at least one game to win the division.  There are no scenarios where they clinch the division with a 5-3 record.

Pitt is the only team that could clinch the division prior to any week 13 games being played.

uva (4-2)
Games remaining:  Pitt, VT

Most of uva's chances (along with most of the Coastal) reside in beating Pitt in week 12.  A Pitt victory would move them up to 6-1, setting the bar for the Coastal champion to have 2 or fewer losses.

uva's easiest path is winning out.  That would put them at 6-2, and the only two teams that could possibly match that record are Pitt and Miami, both of whom would have lost to uva head-to-head.

uva will be eliminated with a loss to Pitt.

If uva beats Pitt in week 12, then they would need one of these additional outcomes:
-a win in week 13
-at least one Miami loss during weeks 11-13
-a VT loss in week 11 or 12
-a Pitt loss in week 13

Miami (3-2)
Games remaining:  FSU, VT, Duke

Miami is the only Coastal team that can remain alive regardless of the Pitt/uva outcome.  The only thing that matter to the Hurricanes will be that they will be rooting for the winner of that game to lose in week 13.

Miami's required outcomes are winning out plus a loss by the winner of Pitt/uva in week 13.

VT (2-3)
Games remaining:  Duke, Miami, uva
VT can only clinch the division by forcing a tie of teams at 5-3.  Due to the necessary outcomes and current standings, such a tie would have to involve uva and Pitt.  Miami may or may not be included depending on how they perform in their remaining games.

In either one of those situations, VT would claim the division.  In the three way tie, all teams would be 1-1 against each other, so we'd have to go down to the divisional records, where VT has the edge at 5-1 compared to uva and Pitt's 4-2 records.  If we throw Miami into a four way tie, VT and uva would be 2-1 against the group, and then VT would have the head-to-head over uva.