New Year's Six Projections

In the past, I would take the weekly CFP rankings and project the New Year's Six bowls.  I think that fell to the side last year because the COVID schedule was so crazy, and then I just forgot about it this year.

I tried to project out the bowls based on last week's rankings, but there were so many teams bunched up in the top that had yet to play each other.  Now, with only conference championship games remaining, it's much easier, although I will hedge my bets with two scenarios.

The semifinals are the Orange and Cotton Bowls this year, meaning the ACC champ is the only one displaced and we don't have to deal with that SEC/B1G/ND deal for the Orange Bowl.

Scenario #1 - Georgia beats Alabama

Semifinals:
1 Georgia (SEC projected champ) vs. 5 Oklahoma State (projected Big 12 champ)
2 Michigan (B1G projected champ) vs. 4 Cincinnati (Group of 5 champ)

Rose Bowl:
7 Ohio State (B1G replacement) vs. 10 Oregon (Pac-12 projected champ)

Sugar Bowl:
3 Alabama (SEC replacement) vs. 9 Baylor (Big 12 replacement)

Peach Bowl:
15/16 Pitt or Wake Forest (ACC champ) vs. 6 Notre Dame (at-large)

Fiesta Bowl:
8 Ole Miss vs. 11 Michigan State (both at-large)

Scenario #2 - Alabama beats Georgia

Semifinals:
3 Alabama (projected SEC champ, projected #1 seed) vs. 4 Cincinnati (Group of 5 champ)
1 Georgia (at-large, projected #2 seed) vs. 2 Michigan (B1G projected champ and #3 seed)

Rose Bowl:
7 Ohio State (B1G replacement) vs. 10 Oregon (Pac-12 projected champ)

Sugar Bowl:
8 Ole Miss (SEC replacement) vs. 5 Oklahoma State (projected Big 12 champ)

Peach Bowl:
15/16 Pitt or Wake Forest (ACC champ) vs. 6 Notre Dame (at-large)

Fiesta Bowl:
9 Baylor (Big 12 replacement) vs. 11 Michigan State (both at-large)

Either way, it looks like the top 11 plus the ACC champ are going to the NY6 bowls.  The SEC championship mainly will just adjust arrangements.  The most interesting twist for the NY6 would be the possibility of Cincinnati losing their conference championship game.  That would most likely drop them out of the top 4.  Since they wouldn't be a conference champ, another G5 team would be in line to take the contracted spot, although Cincy could stay ranked high enough to be an at-large team.