With the first set of CFP Rankings out, and a set of games using those rankings played, I figured I'd dig into my first "thought" post since the end of September.
There is still plenty of season left to go. Ample opportunities for rankings to change, and for conference races to change And as a Hokie, I'm of the mindset to where I want to see some COACHES change!
With so much talk about the playoff itself, and now so much talk about the Playoff talk (though admittedly, moreso last year than this year), I applaud seeing everything else unfold. Chip's weekly updates about conference races are a thing of beauty! And I love seeing teams like UTSA march forward with what's becoming their greatest season in school history.
So to that end, here are some of my thoughts as we start to enter the final 3-week stretch.
Rankings Reaction
I'm not particularly surprised by some of the perceived "snubs" - such as Cincinnati or Oklahoma below a few 1-loss teams. Or even some lower-ranking snubs like the absence of 1-loss G5 teams or unbeaten UTSA. Nor am I worried, as I firmly believe in the sport's fascinating way of working itself out.
I do wonder a little bit about Alabama being at #2. A close loss to #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game doesn't seem like the kind of thing that would drop a #2 team to #5 or lower. But as I said above, it's just something I'll have to stay tuned to see.
NY6 Races
The CFP picture seems like "Georgia, and everyone else" this season, with about 8 teams vying for the other 3 spots: Alabama, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, and Oregon. Arguments could be made for or against any of them - from head-to-head, to eye test, to strength of schedule. I'll dig deeper into my own CFP thoughts as we get closer to rivalry week, but in the interest of focusing on the sport as a whole, I'll broaden my focus here to the bigger NY6 picture.
As a reminder, the ACC Champ is guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six bowl - no matter their ranking, and no matter that the Orange Bowl is a semifinal. This is the same principle that got PAC-12 Champ Oregon into the Fiesta Bowl last season ranked #25, when the Rose Bowl was a semifinal.
Unfortunately for the ACC, it does not appear that an at-large appearance is in the cards in 2021. On the positive side, the bowl revenue sharing may have one fewer member than in other recent years, as Notre Dame is on track for a NY6 bowl of its own (and as another reminder, Notre Dame does NOT substitute for an ACC team as part of the NY6 bowl process).
The PAC-12 could be in an interesting NY6 situation, similar to the ACC from 2019. If Oregon makes it to the CFP, then another team from the conference HAS to go to the Rose Bowl. Currently, it looks like Utah is in the best position for it, even if the Utes lose to the Ducks twice down the stretch. UVA managed to hang in the rankings at #24 when they fulfilled the Orange Bowl's contractual conference spot; will Utah (or whomever is Rose Bowl bound if not Oregon) manage to be an unranked NY6 team?
I'll go deeper into the speculation in my next post - which will come in about 2 weeks. By then, the whole situation should be crystal clear!
Random Thoughts
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could very well play in 2 consecutive weeks. If OU and OSU each win their next 2 games, the Big 12 CG would be set. We've seen this happen in the PAC-12 (UCLA/Stanford), Mountain West (Boise/Fresno), and the American (Cincy/Memphis); could we see it happen in another conference - and for the first time in a non-divisional setup?
The last of the "Week 0" impacts seem to be blending in with the rest of the college football schedule, as Nebraska and Illinois finally take their (2nd) off-week. After next week, we should be seeing just about everyone with 10 games on the schedule (other than Army, Navy, and Hawaii Rule teams).
Happy November, and Standard Time once again! The high-impact November games are upon us!
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