We're down to just one more week of the regular season, and all of the P5 conferences except the Big Ten have at least one spot of their championship game clinched. We have 5 spots out of 10 clinched, and still have some room next week for some chaos.
The big news in our blogosphere is that VT parted ways with Justin Fuente. It's somewhat bittersweet as I really wanted him to succeed, but it just wasn't happening. But this does mean that Brad Cornelsen won't be in Blacksburg much longer.
Most of the usual info breakdowns is gone this week as every conference either has championship berths clinched, or very specific outcomes required to clinch next week.
ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic
There are three teams who can clinch the division, and each of them has a very specific path. If any part of that path goes the wrong way, they are eliminated.
-Wake Forest (6-1) can clinch the division by winning their final game.
-NC State (5-2) can clinch the division with a win AND Wake loss.
-Clemson (6-2) has completed conference play. They can only clinch the division with losses by both Wake AND NC State.
WF winning would leave them as the only 1 loss team, so they would have the best conference record, and no tiebreakers needed. If they lose, there are two possible ties at 6-2. Keep in mind that each of these three teams went 1-1 against each other
WF/Clemson/NC State
Set up: WF loss + NC State win
Since all three teams went 1-1 against each other (WF over NC State, NC State over Clemson, Clemson over WF), we have to look at divisional records. In this scenario, WF would be 4-2 compared to the 5-1 of both Clemson and NC State. WF is eliminated, and NC State has the head-to-head over Clemson.
WF/Clemson
Set up: WF loss + NC State loss
Clemson would take the division on head-to-head.
Coastal Champions: Pitt Panthers (6-1)
Pitt currently has the best record in the division. The only way a tiebreaker would come into play is if Pitt and VT both lose in the final week.
SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1)
Georgia won the East by having the best (undefeated) record. Alabama will represent the West, either by virtue of the best record or a tiebreaker over Ole Miss.
Big Ten (B1G)
East
The division will be clinched by the winner of Ohio State (8-0) at Michigan (7-1).
OSU would win by virtue of the best record. Michigan would win by virtue of the head-to-head over OSU.
West
There are five scenarios for how the final week of games can play out:
Scenario #1 - 7-2 Wisconsin
Set up: Wisconsin beats Minnesota, Iowa loses.
Result: Wisconsin clinches with best record.
Scenario #2 - 7-2 Iowa
Set up: Iowa wins, Wisconsin loses
Result: Iowa clinches with best record
Scenario #3 - two way tie at 7-2: Wisconsin/Iowa
Set up: Wisconsin and Iowa both win.
Result: Wisconsin clinches due to head-to-head over Iowa.
Scenario #4 - three way tie at 6-3: Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota
Set up: Minnesota beats Wisconsin, Iowa loses, Purdue loses.
Result: Teams 1-1 against each other, Wisconsin clinches with the best divisional record.
Scenario #5 - four way tie at 6-3: Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota/Purdue
Set up: Minnesota beats Wisconsin, Iowa loses, Purdue wins
Result: Minnesota and Wisconsin would be 2-1 against the group, while Iowa and Purdue are 1-2. Minnesota would then clinch on head-to-head over Wisconsin.
-Wisconsin (6-2) can clinch with a win OR losses by both Iowa and Purdue.
-Iowa (6-2) can clinch with a win AND a Wisconsin loss.
-Minnesota (5-3) can clinch with a win AND a Purdue win AND an Iowa loss.
-Purdue (5-3) is officially out of contention. But interestingly enough, their game could still play a role in determining the West champ, if Wisconsin and Iowa both lose.
In other words:
-Wisconsin win = Wisconsin clinches division
-Minnesota win + Iowa win = Iowa clinches division
-Minnesota win + Iowa loss + Purdue loss = Minnesota clinches division
-Minnesota win + Iowa loss + Purdue win = Wisconsin clinches division
Pac-12
North
-Oregon (6-2) can clinch with a win over Oregon State.
-Oregon State (5-3) can clinch with a win over Oregon AND a Washington State loss.
-Washington State (5-3) can clinch with a win AND an Oregon State win over Oregon.
Oregon is the only team that can outright win with the best record of 7-2. If they lose, it opens up the possibilities of ties at 6-3, which would have to include both Oregon schools. Obviously, Oregon State would clinch on a head-to-head in a two team tie. If Washington State wins to create a three way tie, they would clinch the division as the three teams would be 1-1 against each other, and Wazzu would have the best divisional record.
Since Washington State plays on Friday, a loss from them would turn the Oregon/Oregon State game on Saturday into a winner-take-all matchup.
South Champions: Utah Utes (7-1)
Utah clinched the division by virtue of the best record.
Big 12
There are three teams in contention for the two championship spots:
Oklahoma (7-1) - lost to Baylor
Oklahoma State (7-1) - tiebreaker over Baylor
Baylor (6-2) - tiebreaker over Oklahoma, lost to Oklahoma State
The two Oklahoma schools play each other next week. Factor that in with Baylor's final game and we have these scenarios:
Scenario #1 - Oklahoma win + Baylor win
Records: Oklahoma 8-1 / OK State 7-2 / Baylor 7-2
Match-up: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Scenario #2 - Oklahoma win + Baylor loss
Records: Oklahoma 8-1 / OK State 7-2 / Baylor 6-3
Match-up: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Scenario #3 - Oklahoma State win + Baylor win
Records: Oklahoma 7-2 / OK State 8-1 / Baylor 7-2
Match-up: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Scenario #4 - Oklahoma State win + Baylor loss
Records: Oklahoma 7-2 / OK State 8-1 / Baylor 6-3
Match-up: Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Baylor can clinch a spot with a win AND an Oklahoma loss.
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