As promised in my Sunday post, a better look-ahead for this season's CFP/NY6 picture, based on the penultimate rankings.
SEC Championship: #1 Georgia vs #3 Alabama (Atlanta)
If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs stay where they have been this whole season: firmly perched at #1. And Alabama falls out of the CFP for the 2nd time in 3 seasons.
If Alabama wins, the Tide could very well jump to #1 themselves. Georgia's dominant regular season would keep them in the Top 4, likely no lower than #3.
Ole Miss is firmly in position for a NY6 at-large. The #8 Rebels can nab the Sugar Bowl spot if Bama and Georgia are both CFP-bound, or a Peach/Fiesta slot if Bama loses and takes that Sugar Bowl spot themselves.
Big Ten Championship: #2 Michigan vs #13 Iowa (Indianapolis)
If Michigan wins, the Wolverines are in. It's that simple! A loss relegates them to the Peach or Fiesta Bowls.
Iowa's only shot at a NY6 berth is the automatic Rose Bowl berth that would come with being Big Ten Champs.
#7 Ohio State is in line for a Rose Bowl berth if Michigan is in the Playoff, or a Peach/Fiesta slot if Iowa wins.
#11 Michigan State is in line for a Peach/Fiesta berth, but would be bumped from the NY6 if Iowa wins.
Interestingly, the best-case scenario for both Ohio State and Michigan State involve Michigan winning and securing the CFP spot.
American Championship: #21 Houston at #4 Cincinnati
If Cincy wins, the Bearcats keep the fight alive into Selection Sunday. If Alabama or Michigan lose, then Cincy is as good as in! Even if Bama & Michigan win, Cincy would have to "win the debate" over Oklahoma State, which appears like it could go either way.
Houston isn't just playing spoiler. With a win, the Cougars would likely jump #19 San Diego State (playing in the Mountain West Championship Game against unranked Utah State) and nab a Fiesta Bowl spot as the highest-ranked G5 Champ.
My biggest question if Cincy loses: how far do the Bearcats fall? Still within NY6 range? Or do they plummet, even if it's a close loss to a ranked team?
Big 12 Championship: #5 Oklahoma State vs #9 Baylor (Arlington, TX)
If Oklahoma State wins, the Cowboys are in the discussion with Cincy. Maybe the debate goes their way, maybe it doesn't. If Alabama or Michigan lose, the only debate required would be seeding within the Top 4.
If Baylor wins - along with Georgia, I like their chances of jumping idle Ole Miss and Ohio State. In addition to Oklahoma State, of course. If it's of the dominant variety, I suppose they could pass the tougher hurdles of 1-loss Notre Dame (win totals would be equal) and 2-loss Alabama (Baylor would have a conference title to their credit, and Bama could be seen as "struggling down the stretch"). Cincy losing would also help the Bears' cause.
The winner can do no WORSE than the Sugar Bowl. And if the winner is CFP-bound, then the loser would be in the Sugar Bowl.
PAC-12 Championship: #10 Oregon vs #17 Utah (Las Vegas)
The winner goes to the Rose Bowl. It's that simple. Oregon would love the revenge from 2 weeks ago, while Utah would love to cap off their 10-year anniversary of their first season in the PAC-12 with their first Rose Bowl trip!
ACC Championship: #15 Pittsburgh vs #16 Wake Forest (Charlotte)
Also very simple: the winner is NY6 bound. Depending on the specific matchup, one of these two teams could win 12 games and finish in the Top 10 for the first time in ages (in the case of Wake, ever).
PROJECTIONS
What I like about this year's lineup is that there are only a few scenarios that make a significant difference in the NY6 bowl lineup. So for a little fun, I thought I'd play out a few of them.
Scenario "0": Georgia, Michigan, Cincy, Oklahoma State win (aka "0 of the 4 favorites lose")
Top 4: 1 Georgia, 2 Michigan, 3/4 Cincy/Oklahoma State
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Alabama vs Baylor
Peach/Fiesta: Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Michigan State, ACC Champ
1-UPSET SCENARIOS
Scenario 1-1A: Georgia loses (other favorites win); Cincy is #4
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Michigan, 3 Georgia, 4 Cincy
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Notre Dame, ACC Champ, Michigan State, Baylor
Scenario 1-1B: Georgia loses (other favorites win); OK St is #4
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Michigan, 3 Georgia, 4 Oklahoma State
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Cincinnati (likely Fiesta), Notre Dame, ACC Champ, Michigan State
Scenario 1-2: Michigan loses (other favorites win)
Top 4: 1 Georgia, 2/3 Oklahoma State/Cincy, 4 Notre Dame
Rose: Iowa vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Alabama vs Baylor
Peach/Fiesta: ACC Champ, Michigan, Ohio State, Ole Miss
Scenario 1-3: Oklahoma State loses (other favorites win)
Top 4: 1 Georgia, 2 Michigan, 3 Cincinnati, 4 Notre Dame
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Alabama vs Baylor
Peach/Fiesta: Ole Miss, ACC Champ, Michigan State, Oklahoma State
Scenario 1-4: Cincinnati loses (other favorites win)
Top 4: 1 Georgia, 2 Michigan, 3 Oklahoma State, 4 Notre Dame
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Alabama vs Baylor
Peach/Fiesta: Houston (likely Fiesta), Ole Miss, ACC Champ, 1 of Cincy/Michigan State
2-UPSET SCENARIOS
Scenario 2-1: Georgia and Michigan lose (Cincy and OK St. win)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Georgia, 3/4 Cincy/Oklahoma State
Rose: Iowa vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, ACC Champ
Scenario 2-2: Georgia and Cincy lose (Michigan and OK St. win)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Michigan, 3 Georgia, 4 Oklahoma State
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Houston (likely Fiesta), Notre Dame, ACC Champ, 1 of Cincy/Michigan State
Scenario 2-3: Georgia and Oklahoma State lose (Michigan and Cincy win)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Michigan, 3 Georgia, 4 Cincinnati
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Notre Dame, ACC Champ, Michigan State, Oklahoma State
Scenario 2-4: Michigan and Oklahoma State lose (Georgia and Cincy win)
Top 4: 1 Georgia, 2 Cincinnati, 3 Baylor (???), 4 Notre Dame
Rose: Iowa vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Alabama vs Oklahoma State
Peach/Fiesta: Michigan, Ohio State, ACC Champ, Ole Miss
Scenario 2-5: Michigan and Cincy lose (Georgia and Oklahoma State win)
Top 4: 1 Georgia, 2 Oklahoma State, 3 Alabama (???), 4 Notre Dame
Rose: Iowa vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Houston (likely Fiesta), Michigan, Ohio State, ACC Champ
Scenario 2-6: Cincy and Oklahoma State lose (Georgia and Michigan win)
Top 4: 1 Georgia, 2 Michigan, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Baylor
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Alabama vs Oklahoma State
Peach/Fiesta: Houston (likely Fiesta), Ole Miss, ACC Champ, 1 of Cincy/Michigan State
3-UPSET SCENARIOS
Scenario 3-1: Only Georgia wins (Michigan, Cincy, OK St all lose)
Top 4: 1 Georgia, 2 Notre Dame, 3 Alabama, 4 Baylor
Rose: Iowa vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Houston (likely Fiesta), Michigan, Ohio State, ACC Champ
Scenario 3-2: Only Cincy wins (Georgia, Michigan, OK St. all lose)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Georgia, 3 Cincy, 4 Notre Dame
Rose: Iowa vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Michigan, Ohio State, ACC Champ, Oklahoma State
Scenario 3-3: Only Michigan wins (Georgia, Cincy, OK St. all lose)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Michigan, 3 Georgia, 4 Notre Dame
Rose: Ohio State vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Houston (likely Fiesta), Oklahoma State, ACC Champ, 1 of Cincy/Michigan State
Scenario 3-4: Only Oklahoma State wins (Georgia, Michigan, Cincy all lose)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Oklahoma State, 3 Georgia, 4 Notre Dame
Rose: Iowa vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Houston (likely Fiesta), Michigan, Ohio State, ACC Champ
TOTAL CHAOS SCENARIO (All 4 favorites lose)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Georgia, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Baylor
Rose: Iowa vs PAC-12 Champ
Sugar: Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss
Peach/Fiesta: Houston (likely Fiesta), Michigan, Ohio State, ACC Champ
So, with all that said, how do I think the games and bowl matchups will go? Personally, I think chalk holds, and we see all 4 CFP favorites win (that doesn't mean the games will be duds).
I also foresee Utah proving that the dominant win 2 weeks ago wasn't a fluke, and securing their first-ever Rose Bowl berth.
And lastly, in my own conference, I think Pitt gets it done, and the Panthers win their first ACC title.
For the NY6, that gives us (ACC and PAC-12 champs conveniently sliding above enough idle and losing teams to make the Top 12 all of the NY6 teams):
Orange: 1 Georgia vs 4 Oklahoma State
Cotton: 2 Michigan vs 3 Cincinnati
Rose: 7 Ohio State vs 11 Utah
Sugar: 5 Alabama vs 12 Baylor
Peach: 6 Notre Dame vs 8 Ole Miss
Fiesta: 9 Michigan State vs 10 Pittsburgh
Happy Championship Week, everybody!
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