We are hitting the home stretch, and a lot of races are coming down to the last two weeks.
Reminder that the conference races only count conference games. Tiebreaker info is under each team, separated into wins (W) and losses (L).
Teams that control their own destiny can win their division by winning out. Teams who need help are able of regaining control if other teams lose. Teams who are "out of control" could still win their division, but require tiebreakers.
I took out the bowl eligibility tracker, because it was just too much work on top of the conference races, and it really doesn't fit in with the same time of record tracking.
ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic
Controls destiny:
-Wake Forest (6-0)
--WF just needs to win 1 of their last 2 games to clinch the division. They will be eliminated if they lose both games.
W: Louisville, FSU, Syracuse, NC State
Out of control:
-Clemson (5-2) will be eliminated with a loss to WF in week 12.
--They need all of the following to clinch:
---win over WF in week 12
---WF loss to BC in week 13
---NC State to lose any game.
W: BC, Syracuse, FSU, Louisville
L: NC State
-NC State (4-2)
--They will be eliminated with a loss OR Wake win.
--They need to win out and have WF lose out to clinch the division.
W: Clemson, BC, Louisville, FSU
L: WF
Wake Forest is the only team able to get more than 6 wins. Doing so would give them the best record in the division. However, if they lose out, that would set up two possible ties at 6-2:
WF/Clemson/NC State
-WF would have to lose out and NC State would have to win out to both achieve 6-2. One of those WF losses would be to Clemson, bumping them up to 6-2. The teams would be 1-1 among the group, so we have to look at the divisional records, where WF lags behind at 4-2 compared to the 5-1 of both Clemson and NC State. In that scenario, NC State clinches the division based on head-to-head over Clemson.
WF/Clemson
-Set up by WF losing out (thus pushing Clemson up to 6-2), and NC State losing any remaining game. In this case, Clemson would then take the division on head-to-head.
Out of contention:
-Louisville (3-4)
-FSU (3-4)
-Syracuse (2-4)
-Boston College (2-4)
Coastal
Controls destiny:
-Pitt (5-1) can clinch by beating uva in Week 12.
--If they lose to uva, they can still clinch with a win over Syracuse AND a VT win over uva.
--They will be eliminated by losing out.
W: GT, VT, Duke, UNC
L: Miami
-uva (4-2) will be eliminated with a loss to Pitt in week 12.
--To clinch the division, they need a win over Pitt AND one of the following:
---a win in week 13
---a Pitt loss to Syracuse in week 13 AND a VT loss to Miami in week 12.
W: Miami, Duke, GT
L: UNC
Out of control:
-VT (3-3) can only clinch by winning out AND Pitt losing out. They will be eliminated with a loss OR Pitt win.
W: UNC, GT, Duke
L: Pitt
VT's only chance of winning the division is forcing a tie at 5-3. In this scenario, Pitt loses out, including a game to uva which pushes uva to 5-2. Then VT winning out would also drop uva to 5-3. Therefore, any ties at 5-3 have to include both Pitt and uva. Since the loser of VT/Miami would drop down to 4 losses, there is no possibilty of a 4 way tie. There are three possible combinations:
-Pitt/uva
--Miami would have to beat VT but lose to Duke to set this one up.
--uva would win head-to-head
-Pitt/uva/VT
--Teams would be 1-1 in the group, but VT would have the best divisional record at 5-1 and clinch the division.
-Pitt/uva/Miami
--Miami would have to win out, thus pushing VT down to 4-4.
--uva would be 2-0 among the group and clinch the division.
Due to these scenarios, we can conclude that Miami is out of contention.
To simplify the Coastal race, there are four games that can potential determine the outcome of the division: uva@Pitt, VT@Miami, Pitt@Syracuse, and VT@uva.
If Pitt beats uva, then they clinch the division and none of the other games matter.
If uva beats Pitt, then we have these remaining combinations:
-VT over Miami, Pitt over Syracuse, VT over uva / Pitt wins.
-VT over Miami, uva over VT / uva wins (Pitt@Syracuse doesn't matter)
-VT over Miami, Syracuse over Pitt, VT over uva / VT wins.
-Miami over VT, Pitt over Syracuse, VT over uva / Pitt wins.
-Miami over VT, Pitt over Syracuse, uva over VT / uva wins.
-Miami over VT, Syracuse over Pitt / uva wins (VT@uva doesn't matter)
Out of contention:
-Miami (3-3)
-UNC (3-4)
-GT (2-6)
-Duke (0-6)
If Pitt beats uva and WF beats Clemson, then the ACCCG could be set by the end of the week 12 games.
SEC
East Champions - Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
Georgia is the only team in the division with an undefeated conference record.
West
Controls destiny:
-Alabama (5-1) can clinch with a win.
W: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU
L: Texas A&M
Remaining games: Arkansas, Auburn
There are still a wide variety of permutations of ties at 5-3 in the SEC West, and all of the teams currently in contention have a scenario where it works out for them. Naturally, everyone is eliminated with an Alabama win. Any of the 3-loss teams will be eliminated with a loss. Ole Miss has been moved to "Out of control" from "Needs help" because their final game is played on Thanksgiving, whereas they would still be waiting until the following Saturday to see the outcomes of other games. (Again, assuming Alabama loses out.)
Out of control:
-Ole Miss (4-2) can clinch by winning out AND Alabama losing out.
W: Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU
L: Alabama, Auburn
Remaining games: Vandy, Mississippi State
-Texas A&M (4-3)
W: Alabama, Auburn
L: Arkansas, Miss State, Ole Miss
Remaining game: LSU
-Mississippi State (4-3)
W: Texas A&M, Auburn
L: LSU, Alabama, Arkansas
Remaining game: Ole Miss
-Auburn (3-3)
W: LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss
L: Texas A&M, Mississippi State
Remaining games: USCe, Alabama
-Arkansas (3-3)
W: Texas A&M, Miss State, LSU
L: Ole Miss, Auburn
Remaining games: Alabama, Mizzou
Out of contention:
-LSU (2-5)
Big Ten (B1G)
East
Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (7-0) can clinch with a win AND Michigan loss.
W: Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, PSU
Remaining games: MSU, Michigan
-Michigan State (6-1) can clinch by winning out. They will be eliminated with a loss.
W: Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland
Remaining games: OSU, PSU
Needs help:
-Michigan (6-1) can clinch by winning out AND a MSU loss to OSU in week 12.
W: Rutgers, Indiana, PSU
L: Michigan State
Remaining games: Maryland, OSU
Out of contention:
-Penn State (3-4)
-Maryland (2-5)
-Rutgers (2-5)
-Indiana (0-7)
West
Controls destiny:
-Wisconsin (5-2)
W: Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern
Remaining games: Nebraska, Minnesota
Needs help:
-Iowa (5-2) needs a loss by Wisconsin
W: Northwestern, Minnesota
L: Purdue, Wisconsin
Remaining games: Illinois, Nebraska
-Minnesota (4-3) needs Iowa to lose out.
W: Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern
L: Illinois, Iowa
Remaining games: Indiana, Wisconsin
-Purdue (4-3) needs losses by Minnesota and Wisconsin (2).
W: Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska
L: Minnesota, Wisconsin
Remaining games: Northwestern, Indiana
Out of control
-Illinois (3-4) would need to force at tie at 5-4 that includes Wisconsin and Iowa, and likely other teams to get the correct tiebreakers. They will be eliminated with a loss OR Wisconsin win.
W: Nebraska, Minnesota
L: Purdue, Wisconsin
Remaining games: Iowa, Northwestern
Out of contention:
-Northwestern (1-6)
-Nebraska (1-6)
Pac-12
North
Controls destiny:
-Oregon (6-1) can clinch with a win OR losses by both Oregon State and Washington State
W: Cal, Washington, Washington State
L: Stanford
Needs help:
-Oregon State (4-3) can clinch by winning out AND Oregon losing to Utah in week 12 AND Washington State losing any game. They will be eliminated with a loss OR Oregon win.
W: Washington, Stanford
L: Washington State, Cal
Out of control:
-Washington State (4-3) can clinch by winning out AND Oregon State winning out AND Oregon losing out. They will be eliminated with a loss OR Oregon win OR Oregon State loss.
W: Cal, Oregon State, Stanford
L: Oregon
Oregon State and Washington State can only win by virtue of a tie involving Oregon at 6-3.
Oregon/Oregon State/Washington State
-set up by Oregon losing out, Oregon State and Washington State winning out.
-each team would be 1-1 against the group.
-Washington State would clinch with their 4-1 division record being better than the 3-2 records that both Oregon schools would have.
Oregon/Oregon State
-set up by Oregon losing out, Oregon State winning out, and Washington State losing at least one game.
-Oregon State would have head-to-head
Oregon/Washington State
-set up by Oregon losing out, Oregon State losing to Arizona State in week 12, and Washington State winning out.
-Oregon has head-to-head
Oregon State is still listed as "needs help" because it is possible that they could regain control of their destiny in time for a winner-take-all game against Oregon. For that to happen, they would need to win while Oregon and Washington State would need to lose in week 12.
Out of contention:
-Washington (3-4)
-Stanford (2-6)
-Cal (2-4)
Cal would need Oregon to lose out to force a tie at 5-4. That would push Washington State up to 5 wins, so they would need to lose the rest of their games and also be in the 5-4 tie. Therefore, any tie Cal would be part of would have to include both Oregon and Washington State. They are 0-2 against those teams. Now Cal needs to include Oregon State and/or Washington in that tie. While they have a tiebreaker over Oregon State, they lost to Washington. Cal can't win with only 1 tiebreaker and they are officially out of contention.
South
Controls destiny:
-Utah (6-1) can clinch with a win OR Arizona State loss.
W: USC, Az State, UCLA, Arizona
Needs help:
-Arizona State (5-2) can clinch by winning out AND Utah losing out. They will be eliminated with a loss OR Utah win.
W: Colorado, UCLA, USC
L: Utah
Out of contention:
-UCLA (4-3)
-USC (3-4)
-Colorado (2-5)
-Arizona (1-6)
While UCLA could be part of a tie at 6-3, they have lost to both Utah and Arizona State, the only other two teams that would be part of that tie.
Big 12
Always a bit different in the Big 12 with no divisions and a round robin schedule. Since Oklahoma and Oklahoma State both already have 6 wins, the Big 12 is guaranteed that both teams in the championship game will have at least six wins. Therefore, any team that already has 4 losses is eliminated from contention. Since the winner of Oklahoma/Oklahoma State will get to 7 wins, that means that any team who already has 3 losses will not be able to obtain the #1 seed.
-Oklahoma (6-1)
W: WVU, K-State, Texas, TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech
L: Baylor
Remaining games: Iowa State, Oklahoma State
-Oklahoma State (6-1)
W: K-State, Baylor, Texas, Kansas, WVU, TCU
L: Iowa State
Remaining games: Texas Tech, Oklahoma
-Baylor (5-2)
W: Kansas, Iowa State, WVU, Texas, Oklahoma
L: Oklahoma State, TCU
Remaining games: K-State, Texas Tech
Oklahoma can clinch a spot in the championship game with a win AND a Baylor loss.
Oklahoma State can clinch a spot with a win.
Baylor can make the championship game by winning out and Oklahoma losing at least one game.
Ineligible for #1 seed:
-Iowa State (4-3)
W: Kansas, K-State, Oklahoma State, Texas
L: Baylor, WVU, Texas Tech
Remaining games: Oklahoma, TCU
-Kansas State (4-3)
W: Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas, WVU
L: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
Remaining games: Baylor, Texas
There's too many scenarios for me to consider right now to determine what Iowa State or Kansas State would need to secure a spot in the championship game. For all I know, they might already be out of contention. But either will mathematically be eliminated with a loss OR wins by both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Out of contention:
-Texas Tech (3-4)
-Texas (2-5)
-WVU (2-5)
-TCU (2-5)
-Kansas (1-6)
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