I think these projections/predictions will be quite boring, and probably not much different from next week.
Peach Bowl (semi-final): #1 Georgia (SEC projected champ) vs. #4 USC (Pac-12 projected champ)
Fiesta Bowl (semi-final): #2 Michigan (Big Ten projected champ) vs. #3 TCU (Big 12 projected champ)
As I said in the previous post, I think Georgia, Michigan, and TCU are locks even with losses this weekend. If only one or two of them lose, I could see the seeding get shaken up (but not if they all have the same outcome). If USC loses and allows Ohio State to get in, then the seeding will be done in a way to avoid a Michigan/OSU rematch in a semi-final.
Rose Bowl: #5 Ohio State (Big Ten replacement) vs. #11 Utah (Pac-12 replacement)
I don't know if a loss could bump Utah below #12 Washington in the rankings. The committee usually doesn't punish the loser of the conference championships too much. Either way, Utah is probably already locked into the Rose Bowl.
Sugar Bowl: #6 Alabama (SEC replacement) vs. #10 Kansas State (Big 12 replacement)
No matter the outcome of the Big 12 championship game, Kansas State has to be Sugar Bowl bound. Either they win and go as champs, or they lose and remain the #2 team in the Big 12. The next closest team is Texas at #20.
Orange Bowl: #9 Clemson (ACC projected champ) vs. #7 Tennessee (next best SEC/B1G/ND)
I think the committee is disrespecting Tennessee by having them ranked below Alabama. Although this matchup will be a true orange bowl.
Cotton Bowl: #18 Tulane (projected G5 champ) vs. #8 Penn State (at-large)
With the Peach and Fiesta Bowls being semi-finals, the G5 team has to go to the Cotton Bowl, and this bowl is the only one with an at-large spot available.
Now, a slight game of what-if, as we look at what might happen if Ohio State jumps USC.
Peach Bowl (semi-final): #1 Georgia (SEC projected champ) vs. #5 OSU (Big Ten at-large)
Fiesta Bowl (semi-final): #2 Michigan (Big Ten projected champ) vs. #3 TCU (Big 12 projected champ)
Rose Bowl: #8 Penn State (Big Ten replacement) vs. #11 Utah (Pac-12 projected champion)
Sugar Bowl: #6 Alabama (SEC replacement) vs. #10 Kansas State (Big 12 replacement)
Orange Bowl: #9 Clemson (ACC projected champ) vs. #7 Tennessee (next best SEC/B1G/ND)
Cotton Bowl: #18 Tulane (projected G5 champ) vs. #4 USC (at-large)
I don't see USC falling too far with a loss, and it would certainly keep them in range of being the highest ranked team not already committed to a bowl.
And finally, a completely off-the-wall scenario, if all of the underdogs win this weekend:
Peach Bowl (semi-final): #1 Georgia (SEC) vs. #5 OSU (Big Ten)
Fiesta Bowl (semi-final): #2 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. #3 TCU (Big 12)
Rose Bowl: Purdue (Big Ten projected champ) vs. #11 Utah (Pac-12 projected champ)
Sugar Bowl: #14 LSU (SEC projected champ) vs. #10 Kansas State (Big 12 projected champ)
Orange Bowl: #23 UNC (ACC projected champ) vs. #6 Alabama (next best SEC/B1G/ND)
Cotton Bowl: #18 Tulane (projected G5 champ) vs. #4 USC (at-large)
With 3 teams having such strong buffers at the top, another team favored to win its rematch, and a bunch of idle teams, I agree that there's little that is expected to change in terms of the NY6 picture between now and Sunday.
ReplyDeleteTo that end, here is what each team is playing for, to the best of my knowledge:
- Georgia: lock up #1 seed and play in Atlanta
- Michigan: lock up Top 2/3 seed and [probably] avoid Georgia in the semi [as long as UGA wins too]
- TCU: lock up a Top 2/3 seed and make any "if they lose" talk moot
- USC: with 1 loss already, needs to win to make the CFP
- LSU, Purdue, UNC, Clemson, Tulane, UCF: must win to make a NY6 Bowl
- Utah: probably has to win to make a NY6 bowl, with Washington ranked just 1 spot below and with a 10-2 record (similar to 2017 when TCU lost the Big 12 title game and fell behind Washington in the final CFP rankings - giving UW the last NY6 spot)
The one team with absolutely NOTHING to gain or lose in terms of CFP inclusion, seeding implications, or even a NY6 berth: Kansas State. Win, and the Sugar Bowl spot is automatically theirs as Big 12 Champs. Lose, and with TCU in the Top 4, the Wildcats get the Big 12 Sugar Bowl spot as the 2nd place team.