This is probably the perfect year for exactly a 4-team playoff. I believe it's going to be an easy decision for the top 4, and I think there's only one conference championship that matters. However, there seems to be a lot of people expecting some sort of drama and debate.
Let's keep in mind that the committee has established a precedent where the first consideration is the number of losses.
The "1 loss or less" group:
-Georgia, Michigan, and TCU are all 12-0 and guaranteed to remain in this group, even if they lose their conference title games.
-USC is 11-1 and will remain in this group with a win in the Pac-12 championship game.
-Ohio State is 11-1 and done with their season. This means that they will will also remain in this group.
Right there, we have 4 or 5 teams, making the uphill climb for the next group that much harder.
The 2-loss teams:
-Alabama -- lost to LSU and Tennessee
-Tennessee -- lost to Georgia and USCe
-Penn State -- lost to Michigan and OSU
-Washington -- lost to UCLA and Arizona State
-Clemson -- lost to Notre Dame and USCe
The only one of those teams playing for a conference title is Clemson, meaning that none of the rest can do anything to move up. I honestly don't know why Alabama is ranked above Tennessee. The Crimson Tide lost to the two best teams on their schedule, and barely beat the third best (Texas). Tennessee lost to the best team on their schedule (Georgia), but has wins over the two best teams in the SEC West. Any discussion about PSU is a non-starter since their two losses came to teams guaranteed to be in the top 5.
Really, there's only 2 teams that could have any shot at the playoff with two losses - Clemson (if they win the ACCCG) and USC (if they lose the Pac-12 title game). Clemson would have the conference championship (and 11th win) boost, while factors working in USC's favor would be the 11th win and having both losses from the same opponent.
The conference championship underdogs:
-LSU -- 9-3 in the SEC
-Utah -- 9-3 in the Pac-12
-Kansas State -- 9-3 in the Big 12
-UNC -- 9-3 in the ACC
-Purdue -- 8-4 in the Big Ten
None of those teams are remotely in contention, even with a win this weekend. (Although, it will make for some fun what-if scenarios to see what a 12-team playoff would look like if some of these teams did win, since it's conference champs that get the top four seeds.)
I think it's an easy pick for the final four - Georgia, Michigan, and TCU are in already. USC is in with a win, and OSU is in if USC loses.
Realistically, who is there to move up if Georgia, Michigan, or TCU lose? There has to be four teams in the top four.
I like your picks. The media is trying to declare Georgia and Michigan as "safe no matter what", and in my mind TCU should be there too. Even with a loss, TCU would still have a win over a Top 10 K-State, just like the Notre Dame/Clemson situation a couple of years ago.
ReplyDeletePerhaps it's ESPN trying to increase viewership by asking "what if", and I think all it will do is motivate TCU to win even more convincingly than they did the first time against K-State. Especially considering the Wildcats have nothing to gain (either win and get the Sugar Bowl automatically, or lose and get the Sugar Bowl as the 2nd place Big 12 team) - which wouldn't be true with the 12-team playoff format.
Since USC has a loss, I can understand why they're vulnerable to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a Top 10 win (Penn State) - something USC lacks. But as long as USC avenges their loss, having just the 1 loss and a P5 conference title (beating everyone they played) will easily trump no title in their comparison.