Six weeks in, and that means bowl eligibility starts to become a factor. With all teams finally starting conference play, everyone has had a spin on the Wheel of Destiny, and teams are finally starting to separate.
We're also able to start looking at a few scenarios more in depth.
Atlantic
Controls destiny:
-Florida State (3-0) has tiebreakers over Clemson, NC State, and Wake Forest.
-Louisville (3-1) and Boston College (0-1) still control their own destiny due to a cross divisional loss. Louisville has tiebreakers over Wake Forest and Syracuse.
Needs help:
-Clemson (2-1) needs two FSU losses. They have a tiebreaker over NC State.
-Syracuse (0-1) needs a Louisville loss. (They also need to not allow two safeties in one game, and actually have someone watch their games.)
-NC State (0-2) and Wake Forest (0-2) both need a lot of help, starting with multiple FSU losses.
Clemson is unable to force a multi-way tie of 1 loss teams. Based on the current records of the division, if Clemson wins out, every Atlantic team (except FSU) would have a minimum of two losses. Even if FSU dropped one game, they would still be ahead of Clemson due to head-to-head.
Coastal
Controls destiny:
-Georgia Tech (2-0) has tiebreakers over VT and Miami.
-UVA (2-0) has a tiebreaker over Pitt.
-Duke (0-1) has regained control due to Miami losing.
Needs help:
-Virginia Tech (1-1) needs two GT losses, but has a tiebreaker over UNC.
-Pitt (1-1) needs 2 UVA losses.
-Miami (1-2) needs a lot of help, including 3 GT losses. They do have a Duke tiebreaker.
-UNC (0-2) needs everyone else to lose at least once, and then some.
Virginia Tech needs GT to lose 2 games to fully gain control of their own destiny. There are three scenarios where GT only loses one conference game (assuming VT wins out and only finishes with one loss):
1.) the loss comes from the Atlantic division.
While GT would end up 7-1, they would hold the tiebreaker over VT and any other Coastal team.
2.) the loss comes from UVA.
Right now, GT and UVA are the only two undefeated teams in conference. If UVA beat GT, and then VT beat UVA, all three would finish 7-1, and 1-1 against each other. Then we'd have to go further down the tiebreaker list. At this point, it's too early to determine who would win that tie.
3.) the loss comes from any other Coastal team.
Currently, all of the other teams in the Coastal have at least 1 loss. If VT wins out, then they will all have a minimum of 2 losses. Even if one of those two loss teams beats GT, it would leave both Techs at 7-1, and GT wins on head-to-head.
So, in those three scenarios, VT never gains control of their own destiny, and only has a slight chance in one of them. So, Hokie fans, you need to root for two GT losses.
Likewise, Pitt needs two losses from UVA. The only way three way tie available for a potential 7-1 Pitt is with GT and UVA, a scenario that requires GT to beat UVA. Each team would be 1-1 against each other, and be at the mercy of ACC tiebreakers.
If UVA does beat GT, it would not matter where their loss came from (or if they even get one), because they would beat Pitt on head-to-head.
And I'm putting this link here, because I know I'll be needing it later on this season: ACC Tiebreakers
Road to Charlotte
To start out, I'm only spotlighting the games over the next couple of weeks that will have major impact on the divisional races. It's still too early to see what kind of impact any of the later season games will have.
October 11: Duke at Georgia Tech, Louisville at Clemson
October 16: Virginia Tech at Pitt
October 18: UVA at Duke
Bowl eligible: none
One win away: Florida State, Louisville, Georgia Tech
Two wins away: Virginia Tech, UVA, Duke, NC State
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