This week, I'm trying a late season total wrap up all in one post.
No one has clinched yet, and we're still at least a week away from working on clinching scenarios. A few teams have been eliminated.
We're bringing back the magic number this week, which is the number of losses to guarantee elimination. Within each division (or conference if no divisions), we take the team with the most wins, and add the number of their remaining games to their losses. To play it safe, we add one.
For example, in the ACC Atlantic, while FSU is leading at 4-0 in conference, Clemson has the most wins with a 5-1 record. Since they have two games left, we add that to their loss total and come up with three, which is the worst record they can end up with. We add one to account for tiebreakers. Therefore, any team with 4 or more losses is mathematically eliminated.
ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 9
Atlantic
Magic number: 4
Controls destiny:
-Florida State (4-0) has tiebreakers over Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.
Needs help:
-Clemson (5-1) needs two FSU losses. They have tiebreakers over Louisville, BC, NC State, and Syracuse.
-Louisville (4-2) needs two Clemson losses and an extra FSU loss. They have tiebreakers over Wake Forest, Syracuse, and NC State.
-Boston College (2-2) needs two Clemson losses and an extra FSU loss. They have tiebreakers over NC State and Wake Forest.
Out of contention:
-Syracuse (1-3) - The best case for Syracuse is to force a tie at 5-3. Since Clemson already has 5 wins, and the winner of FSU/Louisville will have 5, there is already a three way tie. Syracuse would be 0-2 in either round robin. Even if BC forces them into a four way tie, Syracuse would only be 1-2 while Clemson would either be 2-1 or 3-0.
-NC State and Wake Forest (both 0-4) - They hit the magic number. They're done.
Coastal
Magic number: 6
Controls destiny:
-Duke (2-1) has tiebreakers over GT and UVA. They lost to Miami.
-UNC (2-2) has tiebreakers over GT and UVA. They lost to VT.
-Pitt (2-2) has a tiebreaker over VT. They lost to GT and UVA.
Needs help:
-Georgia Tech (3-2) needs 2 Duke losses and a UNC loss. They have tiebreakers over VT, Miami, and Pitt.
-Miami (2-2) needs a GT loss and a Duke loss. They have tiebreakers over Duke and VT.
-UVA (2-2) needs 2 Duke losses and a UNC loss. They have a tiebreaker over Pitt.
Please start winning:
-Virginia Tech (1-3) has a tiebreaker over UNC. I didn't think I was going to figure this one out, but it turns out that VT needs 2 Pitt losses, 2 GT losses, 2 Miami losses, a UNC loss, and an extra Duke loss.
And the link we'll be needing quite a bit in a few weeks: ACC Tiebreakers
Bowl eligible: Florida State, Duke, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Clemson
One win away: Miami
Two wins away: Virginia Tech, UVA, NC State, Pitt, BC
One loss away from no bowl: Wake Forest
SEC Roller Coaster: Week 9
East
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
-Georgia (4-1) has tiebreakers over Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. They lost to South Carolina.
Needs help:
-Missouri (3-1) needs a Georgia loss, but has tiebreakers over South Carolina, Florida, and Vanderbilt.
-Florida (2-3) has tiebreakers over Kentucky and Tennessee. They lost to Missouri.
-Kentucky (2-3) has tiebreakers over Vanderbilt and South Carolina. They lost to Florida.
Facing elimination:
-South Carolina (2-4) owns tiebreakers over Georgia and Vanderbilt. They lost to Kentucky and Missouri.
-Tennessee (0-4) lost to Georgia and Florida.
A loss or a Georgia win would eliminate either team.
Out of contention:
-Vanderbilt (0-5) hit the magic number.
West
Magic number: 4
Based on win/loss records, the magic number should be 5. However, since Mississippi State still has to play Alabama and Ole Miss, we know that the winner of either matchup will have at least 5 wins. Therefore, anyone with 4 losses or more is out.
Controls destiny:
-Mississippi State (4-0) owns tiebreakers against LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn.
-Ole Miss (4-1) owns a tiebreaker over Alabama and Texas A&M. They lost to LSU.
Needs help:
-Alabama (4-1) needs a Ole Miss losses, but has a tiebreaker over Arkansas and Texas A&M.
-Auburn (3-1) needs 2 Mississippi State losses, but has tiebreakers over Arkansas and LSU.
-LSU (3-2) needs 3 Mississippi State losses and two Auburn losses.
Facing elimination:
-Texas A&M (2-3) has a tiebreaker over Arkansas, but lost to Mississippi St, Ole Miss, and Alabama. They might already be eliminated, but there's still too many variables to calculate easily. Needless to say, one loss will eliminate them.
Out of contention:
-Arkansas (0-4): The winner of the upcoming Mississippi State/Alabama matchup will have at least five wins.
Bowl eligible: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Auburn
One win away: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri
Two wins away: Arkansas
One loss away from not bowling: Vanderbilt
B1G: Week 9
East
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (3-0) has tiebreakers over Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State.
-Michigan State (4-0) has tiebreakers over Indiana and Michigan.
Needs help:
-Maryland (2-2) needs 3 Ohio State losses and extra losses from Michigan State, but has a tiebreaker over Indiana.
Just start winning:
-Michigan (1-3) has a tiebreaker against Penn State. They lost to Rutgers and Michigan State.
-Penn State (1-3) has a tiebreaker over Rutgers. They lost to Michigan.
-Rutgers (1-3) has a tiebreaker over Michigan. They lost to Penn State and Ohio State.
-Indiana (0-3) lost to Maryland and Michigan State.
West
Magic number: 6
Controls destiny:
-Minnesota (3-1) has tiebreakers over Northwestern and Purdue. They lost to Illinois.
-Iowa (2-1) has tiebreakers over Purdue and Northwestern.
-Nebraska (2-1) has tiebreakers over Illinois and Northwestern.
-Wisconsin (2-1) has a tiebreaker over Illinois, but lost to Northwestern.
Needs help:
-Northwestern (2-2) needs 2 Minnesota losses, 2 Nebraska losses, 2 Iowa losses, and a Wisconsin loss.
Just start winning:
-Purdue (1-3) lost to Minnesota and Iowa, but beat Illinois.
-Illinois (1-3) lost to Nebraska, Purdue, and Wisconsin.
Bowl eligible: Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State
One win away: Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin
Two wins away: Penn State, Illinois
Pac-12: Week 9
North
Magic number: 6
Controls destiny:
-Oregon (4-1) has tiebreakers over Washington State, Washington, and Cal.
-Stanford (3-2) has tiebreakers over Washington, Washington State, and Oregon State.
Needs help:
-Oregon State (1-3) needs 2 Stanford losses.
-Washington (1-3) needs 3 Oregon losses and 2 Stanford losses. They have a tiebreaker over Cal.
Just start winning:
-California (2-4) lost to Washington and Oregon. They have a tiebreaker over Washington State.
-Washington State (1-4) lost to Oregon, Cal, and Stanford. Their lone win is cross divisional.
South
Magic number: 6
Controls destiny:
-Utah (3-1) has tiebreakers over UCLA and USC.
-Arizona State (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Colorado and USC. They lost to UCLA.
-Arizona (3-1) has only won against the other division. They lost to UCLA.
Needs help:
-UCLA (3-2) needs 2 Utah losses. They have tiebreakers over Arizona State and Arizona.
-USC (4-2) needs 2 Arizona State losses and 2 Utah losses. They have a tiebreaker over Colorado.
Out of contention:
-Colorado (0-5): With the current win/loss records and remaining games, it is impossible for every other team to end up with 5 or more losses.
Bowl eligible: Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, UCLA
One win away: Washington, USC, Stanford
Two wins away: California, Oregon State
One loss away from no bowl: Washington State, Colorado
Big 12 Roulette: Week 9
Controls destiny:
-Kansas State (3-0) has tiebreakers over Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.
-West Virginia (3-1) has tiebreakers over Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor. They lost to Oklahoma
Needs help:
-Baylor (3-1) needs a West Virginia loss. They have tiebreakers over Iowa State, Texas, and TCU.
-TCU (2-1) needs a Baylor loss. They have tiebreakers over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
-Oklahoma State (3-1) needs 2 K-State losses. They have tiebreakers over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas.
-Oklahoma (2-2) needs 2 TCU losses and a West Virginia loss. They have tiebreakers over West Virginia and Texas.
-Texas (2-2) has a tiebreaker over Kansas, but lost to Baylor and Oklahoma.
Just start winning:
-Texas Tech (1-3) has lost to Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia. They have a tiebreaker over Kansas.
-Kansas (0-4) has lost to Texas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.
-Iowa State (0-4) has lost to Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas.
Bowl eligible: Baylor
One win away: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, TCU
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