Only two power-conference teams remain undefeated, with only one other in Conference USA. The race for the Top 4 is intense - as predicted and as it should be. And although not focused on as much, there's also some great competition going on for the other New Year's Six bowls.
CFP Thoughts
As was the case at the end of September, all five Power Conferences are firmly in the mix for a spot in the Top 4. By conference, I thought I'd list the contenders and dark-horses. Several 1-loss teams remain, and some 2-loss teams might not be out of it quite yet. And I still think there's way too much football to be played before we start anticipating an SEC-loaded Top 4 (remember...the season does NOT end today!!!).
SEC
Contenders - Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia
If Things Go "Just Right" - LSU
Really Dark Horse - Missouri
Big Ten
Contenders - Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska
PAC-12
Contenders - Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah
Really Dark Horse - UCLA
Big 12
Contenders - Kansas State, TCU, Baylor
Really Dark Horse - Oklahoma, West Virginia
ACC
Contender - Florida State
Really Dark Horse - Clemson, Duke
Other Contender: Notre Dame
And the best part of November is: so many contenders/on-the-verge teams still have yet to play each other! Iron Bowl, Egg Bowl, Ohio State/Michigan State, Territorial Cup, K-State/TCU. And so many other teams that could jump in and pull an upset or two along the way!
New Years Six
You could probably take all of the teams from my lists above and consider them "contenders" for a New Year's Six at-large spot. I think the best candidates may be those in the "Dark Horse" group. Generally teams that are out of the immediate conference race, a strong finish and a nice win streak could lead to a high ranking...and one of those coveted Fiesta/Peach/Cotton Bowl slots. Some trendy picks: LSU, Oklahoma, Clemson.
One spot in the NYS Bowls will be occupied by a Group of 5 team, and that race seems to be coming down to East Carolina and Marshall. Will the superior schedule and poll ranking keep the Pirates ahead according to the CFP Committee...or will Marshall's unblemished record and impressive play prevail? Or will a loss by either team simplify things? Don't count out 1-loss Colorado State and its two wins against Power-conference teams, though they need a Boise State loss just to take control of its Division, let alone win its conference.
In the late years of the BCS, multiple non-AQ teams could find a way into the Top 10 - particularly when undefeated. It seems the trend has gone in reverse, with a Top 15 (or so) ceiling. So while I'm not expecting an at-large to emerge this year from this group, it'll be interesting to see if the trend reverses again in the years to come. The big thing for any Group of Five team: don't lose...and beat a Power Team if at all possible! A multi-year run would also help!
Orange Bowl Slot
I mentioned three of the four "New Year's Six" bowls plus 16 teams still contending for the Sugar and Rose Bowl semifinal spots. And Chip does such a great job breaking down the Orange Bowl matchup that I won't go too far into breaking down the selection procedure. But in short, one team will be from the ACC, while the opponent will be among the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame (note: the Irish do NOT take the ACC's Orange Bowl spot...that's just for the lower ACC bowls).
At this point, the best a Big Ten non-champ could do is end with 2 losses (Ohio St/Mich St loser at 10-2...or Big Ten CG loser at 11-2). While this record looks to be on par with that of the top SEC non-champ, I suspect the resumes will favor the SEC. Notre Dame is an interesting case; at 11-1, they could very well be in the Playoff. Failing a playoff spot, the Irish should be a shoo-in for the Orange Bowl. At 10-2, they'll be right in the mix with the Big Ten and SEC.
At this point, the ACC slot likely comes down to four at-large contenders. Of course, if FSU loses along the way (but wins the ACC while finishing out of the Top 4), or if the Coastal Division Champ pulls the upset, then the ACC representative would simply be the champ.
Contenders (in order of likelihood...at least in my opinion):
Clemson (at 10-2 and winners of their last 8)
Duke (at 11-2...especially if the Blue Devils lose respectably against FSU)
Louisville (fails to win the Atlantic, but beats FSU along the way and finishes at 10-2)
Miami (fails to win the Coastal, but beats FSU along the way and finishes at 9-3 and on a 6-game winning streak)
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