ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 7

It was kind of a light week for the ACC, with several teams on a bye or playing out of conference.  Still, we've seen some shifts in the playing field on both sides of the conference.  We've also added the "just start winning" category to the ACC.


Atlantic
Controls destiny:
-Florida State (3-0) has tiebreakers over Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.
-Boston College (1-1) has a tiebreaker over NC State. 

Needs help:
-Clemson (3-1) needs two FSU losses.  They have tiebreakers over NC State and Louisville.
-Louisville (3-2) needs two Clemson losses and an extra FSU loss.  They have tiebreakers over Wake Forest and Syracuse.

Just start winning:
-Syracuse (0-2) lost to FSU.
-Wake Forest (0-2) lost to Louisville and FSU.
-NC State (0-3) lost to FSU, Clemson, and BC.

Louisville is in an interesting situation, as they need another team that doesn't control their own destiny to lose in order to regain theirs.  If they win out and finish at 6-2 in conference, they could be in the midst of a multi-way tie. 

The simplest tie would be a four way tie between Louisville, BC, FSU, and Clemson. 

For that scenario to work:
-Louisville wins out, getting wins over FSU and BC.  (lost to Clemson)
-BC would win out except for Louisville, getting wins of FSU and Clemson.
-FSU would lose to BC and Louisville.  (already beat Clemson)
-Clemson would have to lose to BC.  (already lost to FSU but beat Louisville)

In that scenario, Louisville and BC would be 2-1 against the rest, while FSU and Clemson would be 1-2.  Louisville would win in head to head against BC.

(This would also result in all of the other teams having more than 2 losses.)

Now, if any of those four teams dropped out and there was only a three way tie, it would be a little more complicated.

Option 1:  Louisville (2-0)/BC (1-1)/FSU (0-2) -- Louisville wins.
Option 2:  Louisville/BC/Clemson (all 1-1) -- goes to next tiebreaker.
Option 3:  Louisville/Clemson/FSU (all 1-1) -- goes to next tiebreaker.
Option 4:  BC (2-0)/FSU (1-1)/Clemson (0-2) -- BC wins.

Coastal
Controls destiny:
-UVA (2-0) leads the division and has a tiebreaker over Pitt.  The world is not quite right this week.
-Duke (1-1) has a tiebreaker over GT.  Their loss is to Miami, who is behind them in the standings.

Needs help:
-Georgia Tech (2-1) needs a Duke loss, but has tiebreakers over VT and Miami.
-Virginia Tech (1-1) needs a GT loss, but has a tiebreaker over UNC.
-Pitt (1-1) needs 2 UVA losses.
-UNC (0-2) needs a VT loss and an extra UVA loss.
-Miami (1-2) needs a lot of help, including 2 GT losses.  They do have a Duke tiebreaker.

There is no way to force a three way tie of 1 loss teams anymore, so the requirements for gaining control are fairly cut and dry.

And the link we'll be needing quite a bit in a few weeks:  ACC Tiebreakers

Road to Charlotte
October 16:  Virginia Tech at Pitt -- winner stays in the mix, loser goes to the bottom of the pile.
October 18:  UVA at Duke -- for total control of the division.

Beyond those games, it's hard to determine which games are pivotal, as several are dependent on the two games above.

Bowl eligible:  Florida State
One win away:  Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke
Two wins away:  Virginia Tech, UVA, NC State, Miami