ACC Wheel of Destiny Week 12 wrap up

The Coastal division is taking this race down to the last week. 

Pitt (2-4) and UVA (0-6) are out.  UNC (4-3) is also out, but can factor into a few tie situations.

The easiest path to win the division is Duke (4-2) winning out.  They would only have two losses, which is better than everyone else.  So all they have to do is win against Wake Forest and UNC.

So....

Scenario #1:  Duke finishes 6-2
Setup:  Duke wins out
Outcome:  Duke wins Coastal, best record.

But if Duke loses, a whole lot of possibilities open up, so let's go through them by tier.  Because GT has finished conference play at 5-3, they are involved in all ties.

Single team at 5-3:

Scenario #2:  GT
Setup:  Duke and VT lose out, Miami loses at least one game.
Outcome:  GT wins Coastal, best record.

Two way ties at 5-3:

Scenario #3:  Duke/GT
Setup:  Duke, Miami, and VT all lose one game.
Outcome:  GT wins, head-to-head.

Scenario #4:  GT/VT
Setup:  Duke loses two, Miami loses at least one, VT wins out.
Outcome:  VT wins, head-to-head.

Scenario #5:  GT/Miami
Setup:  Duke loses two, VT loses, Miami wins out.
Outcome:  Miami wins, head-to-head.

Three way ties at 5-3:

Scenario #6:  Duke/GT/VT
Setup:  Duke loses one, VT wins, Miami loses at least one.
Outcome:  VT wins on divisional record, as each team is 1-1 against each other.

Scenario #7:  VT/GT/Miami
Setup:  Duke loses two, VT wins, Miami wins out
Outcome:  VT wins, head-to-head.

Scenario #8:  Duke/GT/UNC
Setup:  Duke beats WF, loses to UNC, VT and Miami lose
Outcome:  GT wins, head-to-head.

Scenario #9:  VT/GT/UNC
Setup:  Duke loses two, VT wins, Miami loses at least one.
Outcome:  VT wins, head-to-head

Scenario #10:  GT/UNC/Miami
Setup:  Duke loses two, VT loses, Miami wins out.
Outcome:  Miami wins, head-to-head.

Scenario #11:  GT/Duke/Miami, option 1
Setup:  Duke beats WF but loses to UNC, Miami wins out, VT loses.
Outcome:  Miami wins.  These three teams are 1-1 against each other.  Duke would have 3 divisional losses vs. GT and Miami's 2, and then Miami wins head-to-head.

Scenario #12:  GT/Duke/Miami, option 2
Setup:  Duke loses to WF but beats UNC, Miami wins out, VT loses.
Outcome:  Duke wins Coastal.  The first two tiebreaker steps don't work.  I've seen a couple of different interpretation of the third tiebreaker, but all of them have Duke winning.  The interpretation I'm going with is that they will look at how the tied teams did against the team that is immediately under them, which would be VT.  Duke is the only one of the three to beat VT, so they win.

I think that takes care of three way ties.

Four way ties at 5-3:

Scenario #13:  GT/Duke/Miami/VT
Setup:  Miami wins out, VT wins, Duke loses to WF but beats UNC.
Outcome:  Duke wins Coastal.  On head-to-head among the four teams, Duke and VT would be 2-1, where Miami and GT would be 1-2.  Duke then beats VT on direct head-to-head.

Scenario #14:  GT/VT/Miami/UNC
Setup:  Duke loses out, Miami and VT win out.
Outcome:  VT wins, head-to-head.

Scenario #15:  GT/Duke/Miami/UNC
Setup:  Miami wins out, VT loses, Duke beats WF but loses to UNC.
Outcome:  Miami wins Coastal.  Among the four teams, Miami and GT would be 2-1, while Duke and UNC would be 1-2.  Miami then beats GT on direct head-to-head.

Scenario #16:  GT/Duke/VT/UNC
Setup:  Miami loses, VT wins out, Duke beats WF, UNC beats Duke.
Outcome:  VT wins Coastal.  Among the four, VT and GT would be 2-1, Duke and UNC 1-2, VT beats GT on direct head-to-head.

Five way tie at 5-3:

Scenario #17:  GT/Duke/VT/Miami/UNC
Setup:  VT and Miami win out, Duke beats Wake, UNC beats Duke.
Outcome:  VT wins Coastal.  Among the five teams, VT would be 3-1.  Duke, GT, and Miami would be 2-2, and UNC would be 1-3.

I think these 17 scenarios cover all of the possibilities. 

Of the four possible teams that can win the Coastal, here are their chances:
VT 7/17
Miami 4/17
GT 3/17
Duke 3/17

Isn't that the most ACC thing ever?  The only team that controls their destiny actually has the fewest winning scenarios.

We're beyond looking at situations to gain control.  I believe this is the bare minimum for what each team needs to win the division:

Duke:  win out.
VT:  beat UVA + a Duke loss + another Duke loss OR Miami loss
GT:  Duke loss + VT loss + Miami loss
Miami:  win out + Duke loss + another Duke loss OR VT loss

There is a chance I've missed something.  I know there are some posts floating around the internet saying there are 32 scenarios for the Coastal, but that is based on an individual game by game outcome.  Many of those scenarios overlap, because for most teams, it doesn't matter who they lose to if they lose.  Also, if Miami loses one game, they're out, so their second game doesn't matter.

Bowl eligible:  Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Boston College
One win away: Syracuse, Pitt, UNC
One loss away from not going:  Wake Forest
Not bowl eligible:  UVA, NC State