BCS replacement teams

Tony brought up a good point in his latest BCS post, and that is about conference loyalty from the BCS bowls when a team is selected for the national championship.  So I thought I would look at the history of the BCS since the invention of the fifth bowl game following the 2006 season.

Of course, that is the year in which the current SEC dominance started, so obviously, the first place to look is the Sugar Bowl, which has not had the SEC champion play since the 2006 game, which was for the 2005 season.

The only year that the Sugar Bowl did not feature an SEC team was the 2012 (2011 season) matchup between Michigan and Virginia Tech.  That was also the year that Alabama and LSU played for the national title (ironically, in a game hosted by the Sugar Bowl).  Since the BCS only allows two teams from any given conference in the bowls, the national championship took up the SEC allotment, so the Sugar Bowl had to go with two at large teams.  And it was a heck of a game, too, except for the poor officiating at the end.  (Danny Coale caught the ball, dammit.)

From here on out, any years I refer to are the seasons, which means the bowls were played in the following January.

In 2006 and 2007, Ohio State was the losing team in the national championship.  Of course, the Rose Bowl does everything it can to preserve the Big Ten/Pac-12 matchup, so a replacement Big Ten team was chosen in both cases.

In 2008, the Fiesta Bowl chose Texas, since Big 12 champion Oklahoma was chosen for the SEC slaughter.

2009 gave us an interesting bowl season, since Texas was in the national championship.  The Fiesta Bowl opted to go with two non-AQ teams in TCU and Boise State.

In 2010, Oregon appeared in the national championship, opening up a spot in the Rose Bowl.  However, the BCS had implemented a rule that the first year that a Pac-12 or Big Ten team was selected for the national championship and there was a qualified non-AQ team, the Rose Bowl had to select the non-AQ team as the replacement.

We already went over 2011 above, where 2 SEC teams played for the national title.  In 2012, Notre Dame was the second NC participant, so there was no need for another bowl to not have their champion.

To sum it up, it looks like the only two times that a team was not chosen from the same conference as a replacement were in 2009 and 2010, when non-AQ teams were selected.  We know that 2010 was an obligation.

It looks like a safe bet that the BCS bowls will choose replacements from their own conferences.   Let's look at the teams at the top of the polls.

Ohio State and Stanford are in Rose Bowl conferences.  If a Pac-12 or Big Ten team goes to the national title game, the runner up in either conference knows they have a rosy future.

If Baylor can make it in, there's no telling what the Fiesta Bowl will do.  They have a history of going outside the box for their matchups, and they have the last pick of the at-large teams this year.  So, the Big 12 or replacement team is most likely going to be their marquee team.

The only way Alabama doesn't go to a BCS bowl is if they just don't win anymore, and that seems highly unlikely at this point.  Even if they lose a game and miss out on the SEC and/or national title game, they will still have a good enough record for an at-large spot.  If they do completely melt down, there will be plenty of SEC teams with only 1 or 2 losses that the Sugar Bowl will be willing to select.

Florida State and the ACC can be tricky.  The Orange Bowl already has ratings problems, as it usually ends up with the lowest ranked teams in the BCS bowls.  Fortunately, they have first pick of the at-large teams this year.  More than likely, Clemson will be the FSU replacement, as they are the only team in the ACC that can have only 1 loss.  The Coastal division is spinning the Wheel of Destiny so fiercely that the only chance any of them have for getting to the Orange Bowl is by beating FSU in the ACC title game.  The only team that is attractive from a tourism point of view is Virginia Tech, but they have been very uneven the last two years, and only have a 1-3 record in the Orange Bowl.  Even if Miami somehow wins the division and ends with a 10-3 record (assuming a second loss to FSU), they are literally the home team, and can barely bring fans in during the regular season.  They certainly wouldn't be a tourism draw for the area.