BCS Thoughts: Mid November

Just a few more weeks to go, and there's still so much room for chaos.  So, without further ado, here's my latest take on how the final BCS is shaping up.

National Championship Game
The major-conference unbeatens are down to 4, with two distinct "tiers". 

In Tier 1, we'll find Alabama and Florida State.  For the Tide and Seminoles, it's simply win and get in.  But they'll both be sure to get their opponents' best - including road games against bitter in-state rivals (Auburn, Florida respectively).

In Tier 2, we'll find Ohio State and Baylor.  It seems that these teams need a loss by a "Tier 1" team to jump into Tier 1 themselves.  What's not clear is who makes the jump if only one of FSU or Bama lose.  Although Stanford is currently positioned ahead of Baylor in the  BCS standings, I believe the Bears will pass the one-loss Cardinal with another good win (possibly after this weekend's neutral-site matchup with Texas Tech).

A few one-loss teams in contention include Stanford (with their lofty current #4 ranking), Auburn, and Missouri.  I wonder if we'll even need to get serious about the one-loss teams.  But of course, as always in November, never underestimate the possibility for chaos.


Non-AQ Berth
I've also been keeping an eye on Fresno State and Northern Illinois, and it's exciting to see this wind up as a race till the end.  The polls seem to favor Fresno, but NIU could get a computer edge in the next couple weeks with matchups against a one-loss Ball State and decent Toledo team.  Should one stumble, the path should be clear for the other...if it can win out!  I still say it's too close to call, however, should both teams win out.


BCS At-Large
ACC
Best shot: Clemson (beat GT, take back the state from the Gamecocks, hello 11-1)
Other possibilities: 12-1 FSU (upset in ACC Championship Game)

SEC
Best shot: 10-2 Texas A&M, Missouri, or Auburn
Other possibilities: 10-2 South Carolina (beats SC but misses SEC Championship Game)

Big Ten
Best shots: 10-2 Wisconsin or 11-2 Michigan State
Other possibility: 12-1 Ohio State (loss in B1G Championship Game)

Big 12
Best shot: 10-2 Oklahoma/Oklahoma State winner
Other possibility: 11-1 Baylor (loss to Oklahoma State or Texas)

PAC 12
Best shot: 11-1 Oregon
Other possibility: 10-2 Stanford (second loss to USC or Cal)

OTHER REMOTE POSSIBILITIES
11-1 Louisville
Undefeated non-automatic Northern Illinois or Fresno State

COMMENTS
As long as it's possible, I suspect the BCS bowls remain loyal to their host conferences.  In other words, if Alabama-FSU is the NCG matchup, I believe Clemson and an SEC team are shoo-ins (provided they take care of business).  With four BCS spots not taken by AQ Conference Champs, it'll be interesting to see how this shakes up.