Monday, November 18, 2013

Week 12 wrap up

As we rapidly approach the end of the season, I've condensed most of the conferences down into one weekly post.  The ACC still gets their own post, because they always have a crazy finish.

I'm leaving out the teams that are obviously out.

SEC
West
Alabama (7-0) and Auburn (6-1) are set up for a winner take all match in the Iron Bowl.

East
Missouri (5-1) is still in the lead and controls their destiny.  However, they cannot clench a spot in the SEC title game until they win both of their remaining games.

South Carolina (6-2) is done with conference play, and needs Missouri to lose a game.  SC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Georgia (4-3) got eliminated this week by losing, and South Carolina winning.

B1G
Leaders
Ohio State (6-0) is in charge here, and can clench with one more win.

Wisconsin (5-1) is just behind them, but needs Ohio State to lose two games.

Legends
Michigan State (6-0) leads this division, and can clench with just one win.

Minnesota (4-2) has a slight chance.  They play MSU in the final week of the season, so if MSU loses next week, then they set up a winner take all match.

Nebraska (4-2) is out, because they have lost to both MSU and Minnesota, so they would lose any tiebreakers.

Pac-12
North
Oregon (6-1) jumped back into the lead this weekend following Stanford's loss.  They can clench with one win and a Stanford loss, or two wins.

Stanford (6-2) clenches with a win and an Oregon loss.

Oregon State (4-3) is out.  Stanford has head-to-head tiebreakers over both Oregon schools, so even if Oregon State was able to force a three way tie at 6-3 (including a win over Oregon), they would come out at the bottom.

South
Arizona State (6-1) leads.  They can clench with a win over UCLA in their next game.

UCLA (5-2) has yet to play either team around them. If they win both of their remaining games, they win the division.  If they lose to USC and Arizona State also loses their final game, then UCLA still can take the division.

USC (5-2) can win the division by winning out, if Arizona State loses out.

Big 12
This conference is still a few matchups away from anybody clenching.  The earliest anyone can clench is Thanksgiving weekend, but most likely, it will come down to the Baylor/Texas game on December 7.

Baylor (6-0) leads.

Oklahoma State (6-1) controls their destiny, because they play Baylor next week.

Texas (6-1) lost to Oklahoma State, and has yet to play Baylor.  So they need Oklahoma State to lose a game.

Oklahoma (5-2) looks to be out.  If they win out, the best they would be able to do is force a three way tie of 7-2 teams (and that assumes that Baylor and/or Texas lose additional games), which would include Oklahoma State and the Baylor/Texas winner.  In this scenario, OK State would have wins over Baylor and Texas.  The three tied teams would be 1-1 against each other, so we go to the next tiebreaker or record against the next highest placed team, which would most likely be the Baylor/Texas loser.  OK State and the winner already have wins over the loser, and Oklahoma doesn't.  Now, I might be missing something, and there's some possibility that I'm missing.

Kansas State (4-3) is out.  The best record they can achieve is 6-3, and since the current 6 win teams have yet to play, we know that at least one of them will get at least 7 wins.

American
You know what?  I just don't care about this one anymore, and I don't think you do either.  Yes, they are still a BCS conference, but only for another two months, and then the BCS goes away, and the big 6 are turned into the power 5.  Probably the two biggest name teams in the conference (Louisville and Rutgers) are both leaving for other conferences next season.  The winner of this conference is probably going to be in a battle with the non-AQ team for who gets picked last for a BCS bowl.

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