Sunday, November 10, 2013

SEC Road to Atlanta: Week 11 wrap up

LSU...you keep it close for a while, but then roll over?  At least you made it much clearer in the SEC West.  The East...it's kind of clear, but there's still the "any given Saturday" rule in effect.

SEC EAST
Missouri (5-1) still controls their destiny.
Georgia (4-2) needs 2 Missouri losses.
South Carolina (5-2) needs a Georgia loss and a Missouri loss.
Florida (3-4), Tennessee (1-4), Vanderbilt (1-4), and Kentucky (0-4) are officially out.

Currently, any three way ties are going to have to go beyond head-to-head, since Missouri, Georgia, and SC are 1-1 against each other.  The next step in the tiebreaker is divisional record.  Missouri's remaining two games are cross-divisional, which means that they can't have more than 1 divisional loss.  Georgia and SC both have 2 divisional losses.  Georgia has 1 divisional game and 1 cross divisional game, while SC only has 1 divisional game left.

Regardless of if the three way tie comes with 2 or 3 losses, Missouri would win based on divisional record.

Missouri still needs to win at least one game to clench the division (although they are off next week).  If SC wins and Georgia loses next week, then Missouri would still need to win both games to clench the division.

Georgia's only chance is to win out and have Missouri to lose out.  Then, they would have fewer losses than Missouri, and the SC/Florida game wouldn't matter, because Georgia has the head-to-head over SC.

If SC loses next week, they can still win the division with a Georgia loss and two Missouri losses.  However, with a win, they just need one loss from each team.  If Georgia wins out, SC is done, regardless of how Missouri or SC does beyond this point.

SEC WEST
Alabama (6-0) and Auburn (5-1) control their destiny.
Texas A&M (4-2) is officially out, as they don't own any tiebreakers against Alabama or Auburn.
LSU (3-3), Ole Miss (3-3), Mississippi State (1-4), and Arkansas (0-6) are officially out based on record.

Key games for the SEC:

November 16
Georgia @ Auburn
-Both teams need this for any chance of keeping hope alive in their own division.

Florida @ South Carolina
-The relevance of this game won't be apparent until the following two weeks.

Alabama @ Mississippi State
-This game only matters if Auburn loses, because Alabama would then clinch with a win here.  However, if the upset occurs, then the Iron Bowl would still be a winner-take-all affair, regardless of the Auburn outcome.

November 23
Missouri @ Mississippi
-This could be the clincher for Missouri, or it could keep hope alive for others in the East.

November 30
Alabama @ Auburn
-If Auburn wins next week, this game will determine the West champion.

Texas A&M @ Missouri
-Even though it's a cross divisional game, I have a feeling it will determine the East champion.

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