Sunday, November 24, 2013

BCS Thoughts: Two Weeks to Go

Rivalry week is upon us, and several games this weekend will have such a direct impact on this year's BCS picture.  Plus, the rivalries in and of themselves just make college football such a fantastic sport!

National Championship Game
Another week, another undefeated gone.  I really thought Baylor had something special, but Oklahoma State showed it was truly the better team in Stillwater.  Now, we're left with Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State - pretty firmly in that order should they all win out. 

If one of the three stumble, then the other two play for the national title.  If two stumble, things get interesting.  I'm highly interested in the SEC this week, with both the Iron Bowl and the Mizzou-A&M games going a long way to set the one-loss stage. 

I'll get into a serious discussion next week about one-loss teams - and we'll see if Clemson, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Michigan State can find a way to become a dark horse in the discussion.


Non-AQ Berth
The computers just love Northern Illinois...the Huskies average 7th.  It's good enough to allow them to rank higher than Fresno State, even though the Bulldogs are several spots ahead in the Coaches and Harris polls.

Last week, I was convinced that Fresno was simply too far ahead.  Now, I think it'll really come down to the wire.  And will the computers continue to anchor down the American teams, and allow #16 to be the cutoff (or, will NIU or Fresno hit #12 and make the American a moot point)?


At-Large Berths
I think it's safe to say that the SEC will get one of the At-Large spots in one of two ways: (1) Alabama goes to the Title Game and is replaced in the Sugar by Missouri or Auburn; (2) Alabama loses to Auburn or SC/Missouri and becomes the At-Large.  If Missouri wins against A&M but loses to Alabama, I'll be interested in seeing whether 11-2 Missouri or 10-2 Auburn gets the Sugar Bowl nod.

In the ACC, it all comes down to the Battle for the Palmetto State.  If Clemson can take back its edge and beat the Top 10 Gamecocks, the Tigers could finish as high as #4 - netting an Automatic "3/4 Rule" berth (though the Orange Bowl would surely take a 5 or 6 Clemson team to replace NCG Participant Florida State).  If Clemson happens to lose, particularly if the loss is respectable, there's still a chance the Orange Bowl takes a 10-2 Clemson due to the lack of other "fantastic" options.

Things are looking good for the Big Ten, which should have a whale of a Championship Game.  I personally think Michigan State is good enough to beat Ohio State and finally get back to the Rose Bowl.  If that happens, the Buckeyes should be a shoo-in for the Orange Bowl spot.  Otherwise, it'll be a nail-biter waiting to see whether MSU or Wisconsin gets it.  Like I said last week, I think it'll come down to how the Spartans lose to the Buckeyes.  If they "look" better than the Badgers, I say let the boys in green into the BCS.  If not, give it to the men from Madison.  Of course, all three of these teams had better get past this last regular-season week.

The PAC-12 and Big 12 have played themselves out of an At-Large, in my opinion.  Either Stanford or Arizona State will go to the Rose Bowl, the loser will have one loss too many, and Oregon has shown it doesn't care if it's not a championship.  Oklahoma State controls its Auto-BCS destiny, but a loss to the Sooners would be one too many.  Baylor, even with just the one loss doesn't have the "name" to get chosen as an at-large.  I suppose one of these teams could get a chance if Clemson loses big, and allvthree leading Big Ten teams all stumble during rivalry week.

Next week will answer a lot of questions, and should set up one final round of what "could" happen before the final reveal in 2 weeks of what "will" happen.

No comments:

Post a Comment