BCS Thoughts: Three Weeks to Go

With the end of the season so close, I've decided to make this a weekly affair.  Here's where things stand, as far as I can tell, regarding the final round of the BCS.

National Championship Game
Alabama and Florida State appear to control their destiny.  While Alabama's road is certainly tougher, FSU had better make sure to keep going strong against its remaining opponents. 

Baylor and Ohio State sit patiently behind, seeing if a slip-up occurs.  If so, then the fun begins, debating whether the Buckeyes or the Bears deserve that coveted #2 slot.


Non-AQ Berth
I was surprised at how little respect Northern Illinois got for beating a respectable Ball State team.  I'm now convinced that Fresno will get the necessary poll support to remain the leading candidate, but NIU should still be in position should the Bulldogs trip up.

Anything can happen...2010 Boise State/Nevada, or 2011 Boise State/TCU are quite memorable.  Perhaps the Broncos can be on the other side of a BCS-busting upset if they meet up with the Bulldogs.

2008 Buffalo/Ball State a bit less so, when the Bulls beat the 12-0 Cardinals.  It didn't affect the BCS, but I point this out because it could be Buffalo that once again has a chance to knock off an unbeaten in the MAC Championship Game in Northern Illinois.  And if Fresno loses too, then this most certainly would affect the BCS.


At-Large Spots
Instead of simply listing teams that have the potential to finish with 1 or 2 losses, I'll list a handful of teams that appear in the best shape.  I'm done listing Louisville, or a second non-AQ team: I've come to accept that it's just not gonna happen.

Clemson:
It's simple: beat the Gamecocks!  It's been 5 years, the Tigers are certainly due.  Should FSU make it into the NCG, the Orange Bowl spot's got Clemson's name written all over it.  Even if Clemson loses, it's possible the Tigers remain in the Top 14 at 10-2 and get chosen anyway to replace the Seminoles.

Texas A&M, Auburn, Missouri: 
Of all the possible SEC teams, only the Aggies are truly aiming for the "at-large" spot at this moment.  Auburn has its winner-take-all showdown with Alabama coming up, while Missouri and South Carolina still have the SEC East in its sights (Mizzou needing 2 wins, SC needing a single Mizzou loss). 

If Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M win its last 2 against LSU and Missouri, I'd like to think they'll be the prime candidate for the Sugar Bowl (barring an Alabama loss in the SEC CG).  If the Aggies lose, however, then Missouri (10-2 by splitting Ole Miss/A&M, or 11-2 by losing in the SEC CG) or Auburn (10-2 with loss to Bama, or 11-2 with loss to SC/Mizzou) should work just fine.

Michigan State/Wisconsin: 
With Stanford losing to USC, it appears the Big Ten is in great position to get a second BCS spot, and at the PAC-12's expense.

I'm surprised at how low the Spartans remain in the BCS Standings, even after impressive wins against Michigan and Nebraska.  I think Mark Dantonio & Co. can actully win the whole thing and make "at-large" a moot point.  But should MSU go 11-1 and then lose to the Buckeyes, I think theythe Orange Bowl will still give them a serious look.

 I personally like Michigan State more than Wisconsin, but some voters and TV personalities seem to prefer the Badgers.  If MSU indeed loses to Ohio State to finish 11-2, compared to Wisconsin's 10-2 (with many believing the loss to Arizona State shouldn't have happened), it'll be a real toss-up to see who can get that Orange Bowl spot against Clemson.  It may come down to MSU's performance against the Buckeyes and a comparitive "eye test".

Stanford
The best shot at the PAC-12 (or Big 12) getting an At-Large spot are (i) losses by the unbeatens that allows their conference champ to go the NCG, and/or (ii) losses by NIU and Fresno to take the non-AQ out of the picture.  Stanford, despite its ugly loss to Utah and upset by now-ranked USC, remains a Top 10 team in the BCS and would love to make it to a 4th straight.  But it'll be tough to overcome other eastern/southern-oriented teams with the Orange and Sugar picking before the more western-oriented Fiesta.

Oklahoma
I don't really see the Big 12 getting an at-large, and even 11-1 non-champion Baylor could get left out due to its "new-ness" to the national stage.  But if Baylor does win out, as does Oklahoma, then it's possible the Sooners find themselves in position to compete with Michigan State/Wisconsin (or Clemson if they slip up against the Gamecocks) for that second Orange Bowl spot.