After just two games being played this week, we have gone from 17 scenarios down to five. Meanwhile, all eyes are on three games next week that are key for determining the Coastal champion: Duke @ UNC, Miami @ Pitt, and VT @ UVA.
Duke is also the only team that can outright win the division. Everyone else will rely on tiebreakers.
Duke, GT, and UNC are required to be in every tie scenario. GT has already finished their conference season. If UNC beats Duke, then both teams would sit at three losses. However, UNC does not have enough tiebreakers to win the division.
Scenario #1: Duke finishes 6-2
Setup: Duke wins
Outcome: Duke wins Coastal, best record.
Three way ties at 5-3:
Scenario #2: Duke/GT/UNC
Setup: Duke, VT, and Miami lose
Outcome: GT wins, head-to-head.
Four way ties at 5-3:
Scenario #3: GT/Duke/Miami/UNC
Setup: Miami wins, VT and Duke lose.
Outcome: Miami wins Coastal. Among the four teams, Miami and GT would be 2-1, while Duke and UNC would be 1-2. Miami then beats GT on direct head-to-head.
Scenario #4: GT/Duke/VT/UNC
Setup: Miami and Duke lose, VT wins
Outcome: VT wins Coastal. Among the four, VT and GT would be 2-1, Duke and UNC 1-2, VT beats GT on direct head-to-head.
Five way tie at 5-3:
Scenario #5: GT/Duke/VT/Miami/UNC
Setup: VT and Miami win, Duke loses.
Outcome: VT wins Coastal. Among the five teams, VT would be 3-1. Duke, GT, and Miami would be 2-2, and UNC would be 1-3.
I was going to make a chart, but with only five scenarios it is really easy. Here is what each team needs.
Duke: win.
Virginia Tech: win + Duke loss.
Miami: win + Duke loss + VT loss.
GT: Duke loss + VT loss + Miami loss.
Bowl eligible: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Boston College, UNC, Pitt
Last game determines bowl status: Syracuse
Not bowl eligible: UVA, NC State, Wake Forest
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