Chaos Theory #1

Now that we're down to the last two weeks, it's fun to think of ways for the entire national championship and BCS picture to get completely upended.

Since it's highly unlikely that Florida State will face any competition from Florida, their big chance of getting upset is in the ACC title game.

There are still four teams from the Coastal division with a shot at getting to that game, with potential final records ranging from 8-4 to 10-2.  Only one of those teams is ranked at the moment.

What if Florida State loses the ACC title game?

Assuming that there's no other major upsets, then they definitely lose out on the national title, which would most likely be Alabama vs. Ohio State.

But Florida State could very well miss out on the BCS completely.  Since the Orange Bowl would then take the ACC Champion (either Duke, VT, Miami, or GT in this scenario), they wouldn't pick a second ACC team as the at-large, especially if it would just be a rematch of the ACC title game.

Since the Orange Bowl has first pick of the at-large teams, the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls are stuck with the American and non-AQ teams.  With the Orange Bowl's recent history, they have no incentive to pick either one of those teams.  Although, if the ACC winner is VT, and somehow Louisville wins the American, then maybe the Orange Bowl would bite the bullet and pair those teams together.  It's the best matchup that can be created out of the available teams.  In that case, FSU would be available for the Sugar or Fiesta Bowls.

Perhaps FSU could back into the Rose Bowl if they only fall to #3 or #4?  The 3/4 Rule would take effect, and FSU would have to go to a BCS game.

But even in those two scenarios, a lot has to happen for FSU to get consideration in the BCS.  So, could a 12-1 FSU seriously  miss out on the BCS?